SRAR releases Saskatoon real estate statistics for March and April 2008
It took some time for the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS to work the kinks out of a new MLS system, launched in late February, but some monthly numbers for the Saskatoon real estate market have finally been put together, along with the following media release.
Residential Housing Market Remains Steady in the Month of April
Saskatoon REALTORS® assisted 418 home buyers to find their dream home in the month April. That number was down 12% from April 2007 when 476 homes were purchased. Year to date home sales are on par with 2007 with 1480 homes have sold.
The average residential selling price for April was $306,268.00 up 39% from April 2007 when the average was $220,776.00. The year to date average residential selling price is $281,360.00. This average selling price for the month of March was $289,440.00.
The average residential price is derived by taking the month’s dollar volume of homes sold and dividing that number by the unit sales number. The percentage of change should not be used unilaterally as prices vary from area to area. Consumers wishing an accurate estimate of value for their home should contact a REALTOR® member to do a comprehensive market evaluation.
Saskatoon still remains one of the most affordable places to live when compared to larger centers such as Edmonton where in the month of April a single family home sold on average for $386,033.00. That average selling price down .4% from April 2007. Saskatoon again looks good when compared to Calgary were in the month of April a single family home sold on average for $474,564.00. Calgary’s average sales price number is on par with 2007. An additional reality check comes when comparing Saskatoon home prices to Fraser Valley BC where a single family home sold on average for $547,590.00.
Housing inventories have risen across the country and Saskatoon is no exception. REALTOR® listed 898 properties in the month of April that number up 73% from last year at this time when 520 homes were available for purchase. Year to date REALTORS® have sold $416,412,879.00 of residential real estate in Saskatoon that number up 42% from April 2007.
Communities around Saskatoon including Martensville and Warman experienced sales levels on par with 2007 with 104 properties selling. The average price took a jump similar to the city with an average selling price of $244,642.00.
Markets across Canada are seeing inventory levels increase with sales remaining on par with 2007. All indicators point to a strong completion of the second quarter as consumer confidence and in migration continues at steady levels.
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
There's 110 Comments So Far
May 11th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
I think the only thing that attempts to justify Saskatoon’s prices is a comparison to “Anywhere Elseville”.
The city is overvalued by a good 100k average dollars.
When are we finally going to see the boosters let go of their sinking ships?!
May 11th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Hey Trauzzi,
Have you buy your ticket to the concert in Moose Jaw? Talk to Norm. He might have an extra seat. .>)
May 11th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
The problem with these SRAR numbers is they are out of date in Saskatoon’s changing market by the time they come out, now with inventory up to about 1,200 and also increasing on saskhouses.com, with most purchases under asking and asking prices falling, the market is definitely weaker than it was over March and early April.
May 11th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Larry,
I think I may have even missed the show. Rumour has it that she sang a couple of weeks ago.
Nick,
You’re right, This release fills in a large hole. Numbers for May should be out early next week.
May 11th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Larry & Norm,
Not sure what you’re talking about there, can you fill me in?
May 11th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Alex,
That would be a reference to the proverbial “fat lady,” whom we discussed in another post.
May 11th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Hey Norm,
I know you have mentioned in the past that we have a fair number of vacant houses, or houses that are rental listed on mls. Is this still the case?
I know in previous posts, we discussed that their is a good chance that these are speculator properties
If this is the case, I am wonder what are the chances the speculators take their properties off the market, which would lower housing inventories. I am guessing it depends on how deep the investor pockets are..
May 11th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Hi Carl,
It’s a similar situation today with roughly half of active listings either vacant or tenant occupied. Will speculators take their properties off of the market? Tough to answer and probably depends on what they own. If you bought three new houses and they’re all sitting vacant there might be some pressure to unload them. Even though the rental market is fairly attractive, it might be difficult to generate an ample cash flow to service the debt.
May 11th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
I wouldn’t say that SRAR were being “boosters” – but they are “justifying” the high prices in Saskatoon are comparable to places like BC, Calgary & Edmonton -but with no real reason. Their false optimism is now sounding a bit like desperation.
I would like to remind those reading this SRAR news release – that there are not as many comparable jobs (professional or trades) in Saskatoon (in comparison to BC, Calgary, Edmonton – or for that matter Ontario) that jusifies that houses have so steeply risen in price. And for the record – I haven’t seen an increase in the oil mining, diamond or anything of these jobs being developed yet – which was the big speculation for the moves back to Saskatoon & the rising house prices.
I had thought last year it would be a good time to go back to Saskatoon – and unfortunately that was also the time of the increased house prices! So now, I think I will stay put in our home in Ontario – 2400 sqft +, modest price of $260k – and there are jobs here a plenty!. I feel like I have a great deal at this point.
My real scare for not moving back to Saskatoon now is that if we bought a $450,000 home, what job could we possibly find that we could finance a similar home as we have now? What would I do if I had to move? I don’t think I could sell the house I bought at such a high price for much more later on. Unless for some miracle, Saskatoon had ridiculous professional/trade job and pay increases (I’m not talking just hourly full time wages – I’m talking salaried jobs).
May 11th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
When in the hell are they going to stop comparing this “oversized-town-that-thinks-it’s-a-big-shot-city” to major centres when it comes to housing prices?
Apples and Oranges, people. APPLES AND ORANGES.
May 11th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Robin,
LoL, yes I’m sick of it too! IMO it’s a desperate attempt at keeping Saskatoon’s real estate market “hot”. They seem to only compare house prices, but not wages between cities. It conveys a totally inaccurate picture. We are LESS affordable than Edmonton, and practically as unaffordable as Calgary. I’m assuming since the last report wages have continued to rise in Saskatoon, making affordability slightly better, but this stuff doesn’t just happen overnight.
May 11th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Don’t you love it?! Compare cities, but not wages…the best part of it is when they DO mention wages, they use reasoning like ‘well it IS ONLY saskatchewan, and it’s NOT LIKE IT’S alberta or ontario…’ Just wish they’d stick to one side for once.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Also they put in the release the average price of all properties sold in Saskatoon, yet use stats for single family homes in the other markets to make it look cheaper here.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Alex,
“The city is overvalued by a good 100k average dollars”
where did this number come from?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
I would guess that the number alex throws out is based on history here and any past increases or decreases. For one area to LEAP up by 50 some percent when nothing else really leaps is where the overvalue comes from. I’d wager that this is partially due to the enormous price increases on the builders parts (shouldn’t cost more to build here than it does anywhere else in canada) as well as the increase in lot prices from the respective cities.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
O.K.
Let’s compare wages then
Median total income per family (2005)
Vancouver – $58,800
Saskatoon – $63,600
http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/famil107a.htm
According to this Saskatoon’s avg household income is $71,603. Vancouver’s is $75,854. For a city that has double the avg house price, why is the avg income only $4,000 more per year. I’m tierd of hearing the income argument.
“Don’t you love it?! Compare cities, but not wages”
There you go!!!
Does this city deserve 80% appreciation in 1 1/2 years? No
Is media trying to fuel fire? Yes
Are wages up enough to justify this boom? No
but quit using the wages argument in comparison because wages don’t make sense for housing almost anywhere.
I’m also a little tierd of hearing about those who “predicted” the market softening here. You all have been “predicting” this since last August and the market is up 30% since then. Keep saying it enough and it’s bound to come true eventually.
I’ve been called many things since my predictions last August. One of those was egotistical. Well here it comes.
Last year I called for flat until January and then solid increases until May (exactly what happened). I also called for a substantial increase in inventory as well as a correction to start taking place in May 2008 (exactly what is happening). I also called for Winnipeg to be the next real estate investment area. I believe I heard from someone (not mentioning names) that Winnipeg would never see price increases resembling Saskatoon. In January, the average Winnipeg house price was $168,246. As of the end of April it sits at $201,255 (directly from the Manitoba real estate board). I also made predictions in regards to the DOW which have come true.
For those that want to feel good about their predictions… Try making specific ones rather than blanket statements. From the predictions I’ve heard, I may as well have heard “Tomorrow, the sun will rise in the East” or “Some time next winter it’s going to snow”. When I make a prediction I say “this is what’s going to happen, and this is when it’s going to happen”. I don’t say “The market is going to go up” and then 5 years later say “see I told you so”.
Finally,
Hey Johny, I’m excited about Plexmar. Good luck to you!!
May 11th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Northstar, Vancouver is an exceptional circumstance, due to limited land etc…
Alberta, which is next door, has wages from $10,000 to $15,000 (family) higher and lower taxes and many communities with cheaper housing, Red Deer, Edmonton, etc… and declining housing prices, so really not a difference in cost of living (Fort Mac excluded) just more money coming in
The increased cost of insuring a car is only a big deal if you are very young/accident prone, a 30 year old engineer or electrician (ie who we need to stay) actually might save on car insurance, still a couple hundred buck either way…
Manitoba has moderately higher wages and much cheaper housing
Regina has moderately higher wages and moderately lower housing
There are links all over Norm’s old blogs.
The wage comparison as a whole is valid.
Saskatchewan still has the third lowest wages in the country, published 2008, Saskatoon’s wages are a couple thousand less than Regina.
Our wages do not hold up to our now above average prices. Vancouver is expensive for other reasons too. Cheaper housing than Saskatoon exists in Vancouver’s suburbs, many nearly the size of Saskatoon. I guess we always have Warman.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
And Carl, I have no idea where Alex comes up with numbers, ie Saskatoon over priced by $100,000, but Winnipeg, with 2 beautiful rivers, similar but higher wages, bigger stately old picturesque university and surprisingly lower crime has housing more than $100,000 cheaper than Saskatoon
May 11th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Northstar,
I’m going to assume since my prediction for Saskatoon real estate was NOT generalized that perhaps I’m not who you’re addressing in your little rant. I made it very clear last summer that I felt in 2008 the market would plateau then start to soften. That’s been my POV ALL along. If I wasn’t in fact specific enough for you, next time I’ll fill out the “Northstar-approved predictions form” and include the time/day/month of my prediction.
“I also called for a substantial increase in inventory as well as a correction to start taking place in May 2008″ Were you saying this last summer? I don’t think so… in fact here’s an excerpt that didn’t take me very long to find (considering you mentioned August, I started in the August blogs) from “Week in Review August 3-10″: “A small correction at the least is due here. I think through December – January then it will heat back up again.” I suppose there’s always room to argue what exactly you meant by “heat back up”… were you referring to the huge inventory, or low number of sales? It is nice to see you got the >$275K average right, kudos. The truth is, you’ve made so MANY predictions I’d have to catalogue and cross-check them every month! You tweak some of your predictions as things develop, and eventually you’re validated. Sound familiar?
You also toot your own horn very well King of DOW. Your last post was insanely cocky. So just for the record, I’m awesome.
As for comparisons with Vancouver and Saskatoon – what Jim said.
Carl,
You questioned me about personal judgement on the previous blog, but didn’t respond back. Were you actually interested, or were you just playing the devil’s advocate?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Okay. I loved Robins comment “Apples to Oranges”.
Saskatoon is NOT Vancouver. It is NOT Calgary. It is not even Edmonton.
There are long, cold winters, and a real lack of professional jobs at this time. THe wages are NOT comparable. I can speak from personal experience.
Vancouver – I lived there. It was seemingly expensive at the time, but I would have to say, based on a recent comparison, that it is comparable to rent in the two cities. Vancouver has a long history of immigration, increasing populations and prices in real estate. It is beautiful, it is the next place for the olympics. The winters may be grey, but they are mild. People don’t die in the winter from freezing to death.
I am not saying Saskatoon sucks. But, come on. People go to Vancouver for a blooming reason. Its beautiful, its mild, there is lots of hiking, activities to do. Your teeth don’t get sandblasted in the summer.
What I saw in Saskatoon is unrealistic price gains for the underlying economy. You may not like to hear that Northstar – but the truth of the matter is that people in Vancouver have adjusted over long periods of price increases. Incomes have adjusted to some degree. I don’t know where you got your figures, but I remember when I lived there the reported average income was 65,000 per familly back in 1995.
I also noticed that the blog posted mentions Edmontons SFH prices. How can we compare Saskatoon SFH prices when it is listed in total average cost, including condos? SFH averages in Saskatoon are way higher than the 300- area.
Northstar – Vancouver also has some very wealthy immigrants going in on a continuous basis to keep the prices high. People do live in suburbs and have horribly long commutes to have cheaper house prices. There is a great transit system – the infrastructure of which has been long developed. Vancouver has a fantastic recycling program, great bike trails. Should I go on?
Saskatoon – it is a real life risk to get on a bike and ride anywhere other than sidewalks (which is illegal). I have heard of many near misses and have experienced this in Saskatoon. Apparently people in Saskatchewan are licensed based on looking straight forward and never checking mirrors or blind spots.
Apples to oranges. The blooming speculators is whom I feel were responsible for the unreasonable price increases. People got in a frenzy, which was fueled by pumpers of the markets, including some real estate agents.
Consider WHY people moved to SK. Historically – low prices for housing to raise a familly. NOw maybe a few additional industries are trying to break through – however they are NOT established or developed yet.
I got burned by Saskatoon – so yes I am bitter. But I left, and found a great place to live with better wages and more affordable houses, which I feel were structurally better.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Northstar,
Once again your averages, means, medians and other statistics avoid the ground level reality here in Winnipeg.
Avearages speak nothing and I’ll debunk your generalized interpretation right here:
In the end, the fluctuations you are measuring are due to higher end properties being sold. Where I live, houses are being bought and sold at similar prices without having to go up 20% each subsequent sale.
To you, you’re interpreting a $400k+ home in the emotionally deprived South of the city as a reason to charge $250k for one in the rich and human Northern area?
Give me a break man. The real citizens of Winnipeg watch you from a distance.
Investors trade in a greed induced stupor. We made a little playground in the South end for them away from where the real human beings live…and do something other than try to make money by depriving others. Then watch as the suburbs are swarmed by families of immigrants with each foreclosure.
Your breed of ignorant economic opportunism will soon die out when the national debt has soared up and Canada finds itself in the same position as the United States. It’s not the people to blame – they only ever take the opportunities available to them and follow common trends. Or dare I even say pressures and expectations…people only want what was offered to the generations before them.
It’s the investors, media, government, banks and employers who are to blame for what’s to come. The sponges trying to make money for nothing.
When you’re talking about average wages, bear in mind the population difference. Or does that nudge your statistics back into reality too much to bear mention?
I’m so sick of this flat numbers nonsense. Saskatoon is overvalued and though it may take time for word to get around, there isn’t much you can do for your frozen Florida now…
May 11th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
I have properties in Victoria, Vancouver, Saskatoon and Winnipeg. I’m living in BC right now.
Victoria and Vancouver are insanely priced in my opinion – way above fundamentals and most vulnerable to a correction. Sure – it is nice here but the weather can only go so far. The Vancouver suburbs are not cheap also. A decent home in a working class part of Surrey (a 40 minute commute into Vancouver) will go for over $550,000 and be more like $600,000. Vancouver’s incomes are surprisingly modest for the high prices. Rents are reasonable for renters but do tell a story about the city’s pricing. I’m renting out a condo valued at about $550,000 (bought several years ago) in Downtown Vancouver for $1600/month and it wasn’t that easy to find tenants. Vancouver may be “world class like New York, London or Hong Kong” as the city’s shills like to say but there obviously are not the high paying jobs to support higher rents to justify the sky high prices.
Victoria’s average price is around $600,000 and is a small city like Saskatoon with more tourism and a government. I’m concerned Americans are not coming there in droves anymore, though due to their declining dollar. Incomes again are modest in Victoria.
The situation is even worse in the smaller BC cities and towns surprisingly. For example, Kelowna’s average price is close to $600,000 but this TOWN half the population of Saskatoon has a tourism/service based economy with very low paid jobs. It doesn’t have a university of any size or importance. Even the really tiny towns like Campbell River or Powell River have cheaper real estate but the economy in those places is dreadful as every day another lumber mill closes and throws a good chunk of the town’s workforce onto the street. I wouldn’t invest in such places right now.
I also have a large Saskatoon eastside house valued today at about $350,000 (bought for less) renting out for $1700. This tells me it may be still better to buy than rent in Saskatoon – correction or not. Nothing can go up so quickly in a straight line without a pullback so, yes, there will be one in Saskatoon but I think it will be temporary and soon forgotten even in a year’s time- the medium term fundamentals are just too strong. I’m not dumping my property here. I will likely dump a BC property first if I do sell something.
Winnipeg is the most intriguing of the lot. Sure the weather is harsh but the city is quite large and important. Prices are still undervalued there I think. $200,000 still goes a surprisingly long way and gets you into a good part of town – the south side is like Saskatoon’s east side. My place thre is valued at around $200,000 today and rents for $1500 (bought for less).
Rents seem to be rising for houses and condos (there is still rent control for apartment buildings). I could still buy in today and come out cash flow positive even in a decent part of town. For the price of a cramped one bedroom condo in Vancouver, one could buy a character mansion in a prime, upscale “in town” , old money area like River Heights and possibly Tuxedo, rated my some as the 10th wealthiest area in Canada. It Calgary or Edmonton such a house would go for a million. It is truly real estate dreamland there! *Sigh*!
I’m looking carefully at a second property in that city.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Heather,
I asked an honest question, and you gave an honest answer, and I left it at that. I see you couldn’t leave it at that. Are you trying to be a devils advocate? are you trying to start an arguement??
May 11th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Heather,
You just can’t admit I’m right can you?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Carl,
I wasn’t sure on the motive behind your question, now it’s clear.
Northstar,
I know you come on here to play the predictions game and it’s very important for you to be “right”, unfortunately you lost this round. Can you not admit that? I won’t be wasting any further energy on someone who gives me one-liner retorts.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Wesco,
Well it is a pretty house on the inside. Maybe it’s priced at $485K because a couple of those kids come with the pool? ;’)
May 11th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
wesco,
That is a fantastic joke. Reminds me of another one….one that was on the market for at least 6 months on 108th street…cracks in the foundation (hence the 100foot distance on the shot of the exterior of the house), a garage that is falling down, a yard that isn’t cared for and so on…
AND they upped the price 10 grand or more since last year….
http://tinyurl.com/5ehnbz
Your joke is much funnier still.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Ron,
It’s interesting hearing from a person who has rental properties in a few major metropolises. You bought your Saskatoon house for a low price, the question is would you feel comfortable buying that same property now for the price it’s valued at and still hope to make a good return by renting it out?
It is much cheaper in Saskatoon to rent an apartment, basement suite, or townhouse than to pay $1700/month for a whole house. I’m paying $745 for a nice 2 bedroom (2 bath) Eastside apartment. Right now it’d be valued at $180,000 to buy. My friend who’s renting a nice Eastside townhouse pays $820/month for a 3 bedroom (2 bath), so it makes more sense to rent than buy the same townhouse for $250,000.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Heather,
thanks for taking a shot at me, like you said yourself “your awesome”. I am curious on what was your Conspiracy thoery?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Carl,
What shot? I’m not sure what my awesome is, but thanks.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
If I were buying a property solely to rent out to tenants, I would have to say I probably wouldn’t be buying right now at current Saskatoon prices. If I was looking for a house to buy and live in, I would buy at these price levels because I don’t think they are outrageous at all. Given a choice between buying rental property in Saskatoon or anywhere in BC, I would choose Saskatoon. Between Saskatoon and Winnipeg, I would choose Winnipeg.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
The problem with increase investment property prices is that you either need a larger down payment to justify a positive cash flow or a 100% with 40 year mortgage. Both options I’m not to pleased with. Similar to Saskatoon, St. John’s is seeing the same trends. although I think you are a few months ahead in the cycle then we are.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
I wonder what make the owner of the house Wesco showed think the house is worth 490K? If kids come with the house like Heather suggests… I’d have to ask the seller knock at least 300K off the price…
May 11th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Specubridge counter
11 houses on saskhouses
44 houses on MLS
As of May 23
Norm reported 1 sale in Specubridge
No sales on Saskhouses yet in May
Speculators will have to reduce their prices by 25% ( they will still make money) or they will be grabbing their ankles!
May 11th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Nah – I for one am not in a panic and won’t be in one even of the market drops. I’m not selling. My rent is paying down my mortgage regardless of price fluctuations. I still think Saskatchewan is in the middle of a 10 year bull market in real estate but even in bull markets one can see many corrections and retracements. With non guaranteed investments like stocks and real estate, one must expect fluctuations and realize that you’ve got to be in it for the long haul. If you can’t handle varying rates of return including short term negative returns, you should stick with GIC’s for investments and limit real estate to your principal residence. But that would be a real bore . . . .
May 11th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
George,
MLS sales in that area are up 100% since my last report.
I don’t know about 25%, but I think I’d be taking a serious look at my price if I owned one.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
As I stated when I made the prediction that if I was wrong I’d admit it. I don’t know how I could have possibly “lost this round” when it’s quite clear all of my predictions have come true (with the exception of being off $10,000 on avg house price.)
Therefore it’s not that I need to be right… It’s someone saying I’m not when I clearly am because of personal grudges.
To make a “prediction” if I may… (And I’ll make it quite precise so some people can’t say “you said potato instead of tomato so it doesn’t count”) The U.S. will show huge signs of a complete collapse come Apr 23, 2009 +/- a week. Something significant will happen around that time. Mass panic selling will take place.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Northstar, (I have the courtesy to address you rather than playing elephant in the room)
You’re the one who came on here and randomly insulted me, not vice versa. You are obviously spiteful attempting to denigrate my stance. So in return I find and present proof that you’re fallible, and you still won’t acknowledge it. Fine, I give up.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Northstar,
“Something significant will happen around that time.”
What are you planning?
**Calling his local CSIS office.
***This board has read like a daily astrology chart for the past six months.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Norm,
Re: Specubridge,
Unless there are a flurry of sales the last couple of days here, the numbers will look something like this;
Saskhouses 12 listed 0 sales
MLS 46 listed 2 sales
If you are speculator in Stonebridge you have a 3% of selling your home.
Factor in more supply coming on the market almost daily and there just is not any demand for these overvalued expensive homes; I’m sure the percentage will even lower come summer time.
I hope these speculators enjoy becoming landlords.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Hey Northstar,
How did you come up with the date April 23?
Are you looking at economic stats and cycles and historic data and what not? Or political and business events?
The new president will be in office for three months by then. That gives them a quarter to get organized, read the books and come up with a spin to say “the last administration’s books were worse than we thought, it’s gonna be tough economic times, and it’s all W’s fault”
Just curious, thanks.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Northstar:
So what is your prediction for the Regina housing market over the next 2 years?
Up or down?
Just curious, not trying to be a dick or anything. I enjoy reading people’s predictions on things.
Thanks.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Northstar has been pretty damn near bang on with his predictions. Sucks for me as a potential first time buyer but I’m willing to give out kudos to those that deserve it. What’s your latest predictions on our Stoon market? Keep this up and I’ll start calling you Cleo.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
The average listing price means absolutlely nothing… Considering there is such inconsistancies in what people are asking for their homes.. Similar properties can be listed with as much as a $50,000+ difference. So until the asking prices are consistant and comparable the weekly numbers, really don’t tell much.. If a property comes on the market with what seems to be a somewhat reasonable asking price in today’s market.. it sells… Bottomline, these real estate agents who are advising their clients to list at these ridiculous asking prices need to get their heads out of the clouds.. If a property is priced appropriately it will still sell.. They should be looking more at what is selling and for how much instead of what the rest of the sheeple is listing for….
May 11th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
You know, I’ve been reading real estate blogs and forums for years and I never fail to be offended when people refer to others as “sheeple”. That is all.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
the sky is falling, run for cover!!
ahhh doom and gloom everywhere!!
May 11th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Mike,
LOL!!! I have nothing to do with it.
Chris,
Thanks, I appreciate it. If I was wrong, I’d also appreciate hearing how wrong I was. Saskatoon’s market I believe will turn the way of Edmonton’s market last year. Last summer I said that avg house price would climb until May where it would peak. Then through a natural cycle, it would start to pull back. I’m thinking a correction of around 15% is likely to occur between now and December. At that point in time it should show signs of stabilization come the new year.
Mithan,
To be honest, I haven’t done a lot of research in to Regina’s market. I will have to do some due dilligence and get back to you on that.
Robert,
It definately has a lot to do with global business cycles and mathematics. I also see the strings of the international bankers, and how they create their webs of manipulation in the attempt to enslave us all (using money to do it). After all, it was Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild that said, “Give me control of a nations money supply and I care not who makes it’s laws”. Interesting enough the Rothchild family now controls the major central banks of over 95% of the worlds countries including Canada and the U.S. federal reserve. I can go on for a long time on this subject.
The U.S. is so burdened with debt. (which they borrow at interest from the federal reserve that’s 58% owned by the bank of England, which in turn is owned in majority by the Rothchild family) They also had these international bankers funding this over inflated illusion that was called a boom between 2002 and 2007. Now those international bankers have pulled their money out forcing the U.S. to borrow more money from the federal reserve (At interest) to throw at the situation in an attempt to patch the leak. Not to mention the 5 trillion in debt that the war in Iraq has created.
People think the fed is lowering interest rates to try and correct the problem and jump start the economy. The truth is that the fed is a privately owned company and they’re lowering interest rates to encourage the government to keep borrowing money from them. Just wait until the word is given and the fed jacks up interest rates and bankrupts the country. Maybe they’ll throw in another so called “Terrorist attack”. Then the illuminati can come in and buy up assets for pennies on the dollar and take full control of an entire nation, while leaving a majority of the population penniless and homeless. Sound familiar (ie 1930’s).
The only question left in my mind is whether this will happen in April 2009′ or June 2011′. I betting on sooner than later.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Northstar,
interesting. I like conspiracy theories, but I don’t think anybody can make prediction or forecasts and have them come out as planned. The best a person can do is make an educated guess about the future.
If I believed as you did, I would buy the biggest, nicest house, nice cars and take a bunch of trips that my credit would allow for instead of paying a mortgage, RRSP’s and some saving. If they are gonna take it all away, I might as well have some fun, right?
I like your ideas(sometimes) don’t always agree. Just wondering, do you think that we are headed towards the way of the Amero?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Northstar,
NWO?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Sounds plausible to me.
Think about the ugly side of what some people are willing to do for a few thousand dollars or for local power and influence (lie, cheat, steal, violence, murder etc).
Now project that onto what some people may be willing to do for trillions of dollars and national or international influence and control (bankrupt or starve millions of people, create false flag ops, start wars as a marketing platform for selling weapons).
Real estate is just another chip in the global poker game.
Northstar, I’m still curious about the significance of the dates though. You a Robert Prechter fan at all? Can’t say his predictions are always correct, but I do love a good contrarian.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Hey Normie, I think this comments section has officially “Jumped the Shark”.
Heather vs Northstar – I’m on the edge of my seat just like when Fonzie was going to jump the shark tank. Who will win? who will lose? who cares?…stay tuned folks…
May 11th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
He may be refering to the Kondratief Wave, which predicts a massive depression every 55-70 years. They figure the Feds in the US can draw it out longer, but eventually economies collapse due to years of society over spending and debt.
Google it for more information, it is actually fascinating but scary reading.
It also ties into a bigger 120 year economic cycle, that is due to collapse and renew (after a depression) in the same 2010-2020 time (and the world order changing as I mentioned above). Usually the world changes somehow at the same time. In 1880’s the US turned into a Industrialized Country. In 2020, we could turn into a more socialist style world (less freedoms, more control, new technologies, etc).
Of course, if that happens, it doesn’t really matter what happens. Rich and poor have their worlds turned upside down. Those with money lose it, those without, lose what little they had.
Shrug. Who knows.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Yep, the shark has been jumped.
Northstar’s pulling everyone’s leg.
Me, I just think house prices will fall back to 3-4 times the average salary — the way they’re doing everywhere else — and that we’ll all have a bumby financial ride for the next half-decade.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Lol. Go Fonzy!!
I have to agree with Chris. Not many have been willing to be as specific as northstar and I see his market activity predictions as pretty darned close. Perhaps Dwight Percy wins the prize for the boldest, and closest prediction when he predicted that the average selling price would hit $300,000 by spring ‘08.
http://www.teamfisher.com/blogs/norm_fisher/archive/2007/04/21/average-price-of-saskatoon-home-will-be-300-000-by-next-spring-percy.aspx
April: $306,055.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Strokin’!
This has turned into quite the boys club. I don’t stand a chance! That’s alright, I don’t come on here to have my ego stroked when I’m right, or I’d have a pretty big head too. :’)
kevin,
Am I the shark, or the Fonz? Can I be both?!?!
Norm,
Kudos also goes out to Dwight for having the correct prediction with LONGEST duration. That’s 1 year, rather than a few months. I’m impressed.
As for me I predict more months ahead of increasing inventory with no real increase in sale numbers. Just the way I like it.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Norm:
If Northstar is right and the US goes into a depression next year (or shortly after), why would you even advocate people buy real estate then?
The same thing will happen here will it not?
Or do people think Sask is one of those back waters uniquely positioned to actually do “well” during a Depression?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Nice prediction Heather, I don’t really think your going out on a limb on this, as the market usually cool this time of year anyways.
http://www.sreb.com/Srarstats.php3#Month
Also, the good thing to note is that you’re predition is inline with Northstar, so there is a good chance you will be correct with your prediction, the only difference is that you are being more general about your prediction. Will you give Northstar credit fro being correct, or will you tell us how awesome you are, and how aweful Northstar is?
Northstar, i like your predictions, thanks for taking the time to share them.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Mithan,
When I said that, I was referring to his predictions on the Saskatoon real estate from last summer until now, and not his future predictions about the global economy. I’m not sure where that’s going. Just because I’m impressed that he was so close on the market doesn’t mean I think he’s a prophet.
Heather,
Don’t take me the wrong way. I really do enjoy your contributions but I also think it’s kinda funny that you predicted “more months” after jabbing Northstar’s prediction of “a few months.”
Now correct me if my recollection is faulty, but it seems to me that sometime around last summer (it’s nearly this summer), when the market was flat and everyone was predicting a crash, Northstar stepped way out there and said something like, “fairly flat until January when it will heat up until around May.” Perhaps I’m looking at this from a different angle but doesn’t that strike you as exactly what happened?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
I would like to try and figure out this Market, I have been looking for an affordable house for the last week, I’ve been through too many to count turned down for 5K underbids and out bid twice on homes I could buy in Toronto for 100K less. I have a 1200s/ft bungalow with a updated finished basement and am asking 309K there I can’t even sniff a 1200sq/ft anything here for less than 400K + an additional 2k/year in property taxes. I don’t undersand how anyone sees this as sustainable I really do beleive this is going to go “POP” and a whole lot of people will e out a whole lot of money…anyone got a good 3bdrm they would like to rent out??
May 11th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
I would have to agree with moving from Toronto. we were also looking at moving to sk from Ab. But when we went looking for houses and it was about a hundred grand more for a house, plus the two grand more for property taxes, and the pst, and not to mention the income cut. its ridiculous. we decided to stay in Ab, and not return to sk. Who in the hell is affording these homes?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
If houses are back to even 4 times median family income, $55,900, that puts us barely above $200,000.
I’m more with Northstar, I don’t have his magic calendar, but let’s say within the year, because that’s consistent with the Royal Bank’s prediction.
Again, forget who posted this originally, but I bookmarked it, thought was kind of important, shows how our median family income is pretty low even after taxes (ie $15,000 ish less than Alberta, and $5,000 ish less than BC) so if house prices are based on income, every body’s house should take a bit of a drop to get us cheaper than most of Alberta again)
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/story/2008/05/05/incomefamily.html#postc
And I know there’s a lot of this second wave to Alberta sentiment, but some of the more affordable and decent sized places, ie Red Deer which grew from 67,000 to 82,000 (22%) from 2001 to 2006 (ie. much more than here) while still staying cheaper than here, just don’t make sense. Why are our prices doubled when a place that just grew 22% still has $300,000 decent sized newish homes and in a province with much higher wages.
http://www.tourismreddeer.net/
Before you shell out $400,000 for the same thing
Only one example, apparently Lloyd, many high paying oil jobs and bigger percentage boom than Saskatoon, is also cheaper for a home. How did we leap frog all these places?
Anyway, I got side tracked, I’m just saying that wage and oil exposure and job wise, and even nice sized city wise, there are places that have us beat with cheaper housing.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Norm,
I don’t know what you’re talking about. HOW is it that you think things have heated up after January? Does higher inventory and lower sales account for nothing? I must be in the twilight zone, I really don’t understand your POV on this. You’re infact NOT correct about Northstar’s prediction. If you look back he didn’t say anything about “heating up UNTIL May”. The May part wasn’t mentioned at ALL, I posted that VERY quote above, check the blog! His quote implies we would be in for a HOT spring, and it certainly was not.
This whole friggin blog right now is RAH RAH Northstar (You think that helps his ego? Did you see the last trip he went on?) I’ve been accurate in my prediction and nobody batts and eye. Besides, that’s NOT even what I’m on here for. I’m LIVING this real estate craziness and Northstar is just using it as a game. Pretty insulting if you ask me.
Anyway, I feel from all of this that I have finally outstayed my welcome on your blog. What do yah do? You win some, you lose some. (except for Northstar of course)
Maybe you’d treat me differently if we had met in person. It sure seems like you have Northstar’s back, even with his unruly behaviour. This whole arguement started with him insulting me unprovoked. (Did you even notice?)
I generally don’t care what people on here say about me, but it’s quite embarassing being disliked by the moderator too.
Carl,
You’re a d!ck. I don’t care if Norm gets mad at me, that’s what you’re being. Grow up and learn how to contribute something intelligent to this blog.
Well this was certainly a fun Thursday night.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Should have added city, not provincial, data
Median family income:
Red Deer $72,609 – 22% population growth 2001 to 2006
Saskatoon $65,268 – 2.8% growth 2001 to 2006
And the more expensive housing … Saskatoon!
With over $7,000 less income, higher taxes, and just over 1/10 th the population growth of Red Deer.
http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/data/profiles/community/Details/Page.cfm?B1=All&Code1=4808011&Code2=48&Custom=&Data=Count&Geo1=CSD&Geo2=PR&Lang=E&SearchPR=01&SearchText=Re+Deer&SearchType=Begins
http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/data/profiles/community/Details/Page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=CSD&Code1=4711066&Geo2=PR&Code2=47&Data=Count&SearchText=saskatoon&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All&Custom=
I know, I’m a jerk and will get feedback and this is getting off topic, but it goes with the whole “overvalued” and “unsustainable” theme and that if housing is based on income and population growth, you should wonder why Red Deer, with far greater sustained growth, $7,000 + greater income, and a whack load of nice newish (small but >1,000 sq ft) houses, duplexes and townhouses starting in the mid 200’s and no West Side, all would be near or above 300 in Saskatoon.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Heather,
Maybe everyone seems to be on my side because you’re wrong.
“Carl,
You’re a d!ck. I don’t care if Norm gets mad at me, that’s what you’re being. Grow up and learn how to contribute something intelligent to this blog.”
There’s a valid contribution.
Now lets talk about this “not hot market” from January through April…
The avg house price has gone from $255k to over $300k+ in 4 months. Jan 07 sales 293 units. Jan 08 sales 387 units. Feb 07 sales 435 units. Feb 08 sales 495 units. Mar 07 sales 569 units. Mar 08 sales 538 units. Apr 07 sales 641 units. Apr 08 sales 574 units. Total units sold for the first 4 months 07 1938 units. Total units sold for the first 4 months 08 1994 units.
Please tell me how these numbers in your head make up a cool first 3rd of the year? As well, sales in the first 4 months of 08 are more than the first 4 months of 07′ (1994 compared to 1938 in 07). It’s only been in the last 4 or 5 weeks that we’ve seen a cooling trend.
Now lets talk about predictions…
“You’re infact NOT correct about Northstar’s prediction. If you look back he didn’t say anything about “heating up UNTIL May”.”
Ah, as a matter of fact your the one who’s wrong and here’s the proof.
“I’ve giving my prediction before and I’ll do it again. Plus or minus 4-5% until December then $285k avg house price by May / June. If I’m wrong I’ll have no issues admitting it. Just keep this post bookmarked.”
Posted by me on Sept 9, 2007
Although I’ll admit that I got the average price wrong, this clearly shows my prediction of market direction as bang on.
It’s been fun looking through the old posts to find that reference.
“Northstar,
I know that I have not yet chimed in with my prediction but I’m starting to think you’re a dreamer. You certainly aren’t wavering a bit from your prediction.”
Sorry Norm, I couldn’t resist
May 11th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
George,
I believe the Amero will be the product of a collapsing U.S. Bush has already signed the North American Union and stripped away the American constitution. Once the U.S. goes down, it will definately drag Canada and Mexico with it. Political powers using its propoganda will push through the idea that by joining together, the 3 countries will prosper as 1 entity. Things will be so bad that the people will embrace the idea, thus creating a Nation much like Europe.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Heather,
I’m really not sure how you got to “Norm doesn’t like me,” or even that I’m “mad” from my comment.
I start my comment saying “I enjoy your contributions,” and then point out very gently, after you slap others for vagueness, that you’re being a bit vague.
I guess I characterize a 20% increase in the average selling price over 4 months with bidding wars being fairly commonplace to be “heating up,” just as I’d characterize massively growing inventories, declining bidding wars and stabilizing prices as cooling down.
I’ll note though that he didn’t mention your name, or anyone else’s, in his intial comment. You followed up with, “little rant,” followed by “Northstar approved predictions forms,” and “insanely cocky.”
You’ve given me every impression that you can look after yourself, and if you can take half of what you can dish out, you don’t need me running to your rescue.
I hope you can allow me my own perceptions without assuming that I like, or dislike anyone.
I’m sorry that you feel insulted and embarrassed. That was not my intention. I was simply stating that my recollection of Northstar’s predictions were more or less in line with what I saw happen in the market over the first four months of 2008.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Bye Heather D .
Back to Real Estate and thr Red Deer comparison , Saskatoon is a much more beautiful city than Red Deer , so I don’t think you can compare the two.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Joannie, Chachie, Mrs. C, Ralph Malph – were all here now. Jump Fonzie, jump!!
People take themselves way too seriously…especially on this blog. Wow!
May 11th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Northstar,
Given, all the things that have been said on this blog, I find it amazing that you can point to me and call me a dyck. For all the intelligence that you seem to display, I can’t believe you have to resort to pointless name calling. Lighten up
Heather, serious question. Was the builder that you were thinking about going with able to get a lot in willowgrove? I am wondering if builders still have waiting lists of people wanting to build
May 11th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Red Deer is not a comparable – it is really a TOWN while Saskatoon is a CITY.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Maybe if Heather D. leaves this blog it will be tolerable to read again.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Children children behave!
To say Red Deer isn’t comparable then can anything be comparable? I mean then if we dismiss that, don’t we have to dismiss every other comparison out there? B.C? Alberta? Bigger cities? Smaller cities? What about the towns outside Saskatoon that are asking basiclaly the same price for housing as in the city…shouldn’t they be charging ‘town prices’?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Carl,
I suggest you go back and read the posts. It wasn’t me who called you a dyck. I was defending you. I’ll assume that your address to me was a mistake.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Carl,
I think you havent read all the blog postings. Northstar was commenting on someone else’s comment.
Its getting confusing with all the mudslinging.
When you jump in the pit with a pig its hard to figure out which is the pig.
Back to RE – Northstar – the housing predictions…I would not wager against you. As per the markets – I have probably read the same thing, and am frightened that it could be true, but if you think it may be true, does that happen to force it that way? Ie if everyone gets scared of the markets doesnt that just create what everyone was fearing?
I don’t know where the stocks are going to go – I would say its a fairly scary time – but if you are in the right ones, it can be great.
But, for the past few months, it has been a little bit too much like a wild roller coaster. I worried that the same may be true for Saskatoon RE. I think the worry would dissapate if there was more “real” infrastructure development into all the hype of the oil and gas industry. I saw way too much investor activity in RE and anytime you are going up a really steep curve…..and as they say, never risk what you can’t afford to loose.
Heather, I think you are smart, and things will pan out for you. You arent the only gal on here. Just relax and remember that noone is really on here for mal-intent for another human. Most for gaining some insight, and venting frustration – which I think gets a little misdirected at times. There are many opinions represented on here and I am sure that the people that bet the farm are maybe a little bit anxious, as you may be that the prices may take another hike. I don’t think they will from here on out. I am in agreement with Northstar on his predictions for what will happen.
However – now there is lots of selection and time to make proper house inspections. The craziness should leave the market and cooler decisions will hopefully start to decrease some of the prices. I am shocked at some of the jackasses and their asking prices. Greed.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Cindy,
“When you jump in the pit with a pig its hard to figure out which is the pig.”
LOL!!! well put
May 11th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Yikes, what kind of monster have you created here Norm?
Northstar,
I’m starting to feel optimistic that the “North American Union” might get shelved for a while following the US election. No matter who wins, NAFTA’s been on the chopping block for the majority of the campaign which means it’s in the minds of the masses. If we can’t stick to NAFTA, we’re not going to get more aggressive with the SPP. They’re also beginning to investigate into oil price manipulation and food price manipulation (rice, grain, etc). I’m confident that there’ll be more than enough evidence that someone’s been pulling strings. I’m thinking that the correction of world commodity markets may be painful at first but will certainly create a much more transparent market… which in turn will moderate speculative volatility.
PLE, ugh, I refuse to watch until the drill hits the dirt… then we’re in for some sugar
J.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
oops, sorry Northstar, I did make a mistake, my message was meant for Heather.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
So back to debate on Saskatchewan’s economy, in the news paper today, apparently Alberta posted the strongest earning growth again, 6.3% so they are widening the income gap over Saskatchewan. Sask was number two in growth, and now sits in 4 th place in Canada with $750 weekly wage, behind BC at $780, Ontario at $820 and Alberta at $870/week. Again, is “average” so includes everyone, which is why it seems low.
Saskatchewan’s 5.6% income growth was second in Canada, but Alberta started higher, grew more total and more percentage, so widened gap. So with low house prices, I think some Alberta towns and cities are desirable.
Point Two
I’d disagree Red Deer is a “town”, last I heard, it’s nearing 90,000 people and the few times I’ve been there it is quite picturesque, close to lakes and nice small city feel. The same small city feel everyone in Saskatoon with its just over 200,000 residents use to say it is better than Calgary. So not sure why Saskatoon is better than Calgary because it has 1/5 Calgary’s million and Calgary’s too big, but better than Red Deer, with just under 1/2 Saskatoon’s population it is just a “town”. I may not know as much about Red Deer as Ron (against) or Jim (pro) but it has grown from the 50,000’s in recent memory and at about 90,000 is nearly 1/2 our pop. Pretty rapid but well contained growth.
Maybe people in Calgary say Saskatoon is just a town too. I mean the gap between Calgary and Saskatoon is greater than between Red Deer and Saskatoon.
Also, I checked out Jim’s link, Red Deer looks nice.
Kind of premature to bash a place you’re not familiar with. Like Jesse said, if we cannot compare to Red Deer, who can we compare too?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
I saw that too, it was from that Sask Trends Monitor, that said Alberta wages grew more than Sask, again!
May 11th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Just looking for some info about housing market there, live in Calgary myself, I can’t believe how expensive Saskatoon is. Crazy. Have glanced at the sight occassionally. Always lively, usually useful.
Size and service wise, Saskatoon is a lot more similar to Red Deer than it is to Calgary Doug.
Anyway, thinking about staying put, the average price in Saskatoon may still be a bit lower, but the average house in Calgary, mine, is newer and nicer. Maybe wait until retirement to move back home. Or until this crash you’re all expecting there. Makes sense. Jobs pay a lot less there, probably 20 grand less for me, so without much cheaper housing, no reason to move there. Good to know though, I might start recruiting for staff from SIAST, explain why with big wages for in demand skills, a house out here is now cheaper, relatively, than there. See you guys on the blog in another 20 years, sooner if you crash!
And regarding crime comments I saw a while back, my Calgary area and Calgary area in general, is way safer than Saskatoon. There, walking down 20 th for Chinese food way back you’d always get glared at; once the wife got robbed as soon as she stepped out of the car, driving by herself.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Cindy,
Thanks for the advice. It gets extremely frustrating on here being the underdog. But things are starting to go my way – I should be happy rather than angry. The real estate market is turning like I’d hoped, and everything is going to be fine. “Unbuzzing” and talking to others that were “ousted” from the market were the main reasons I came to this blog. I’ve put in a lot, and learned a lot from others too.
Norm,
Northstar’s comment was definitely addressed to me because I fit that exact description. I’ve been saying things would soften in 2008 since last summer. So even if it wasn’t addressed specifically, it was still directed towards me.
When I dish out a comment to one person, five people dish back at me. Some of these guys once they see an opening they’ll take a swing. I find gang mentality as dumb on a blog as I do in real life. If it were truly a 1:1 ratio then it would be fair game.
Northstar,
I never said your price predictions were wrong, never. As you’ll see I gave you kudos for it earlier. I’m sorry for getting angry at you. It was just extremely insulting to me when you called my ONLY prediction that I’ve clung to for the past year a “blanket statement”, etc. I’ll try staying out of your way from now on.
Adster and Happy Days,
Always a pleasure. Perhaps I won’t be leaving afterall. :’)
May 11th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
Lance,
I think it all depends on the experiences you hear about. I’ve gone to dim sum plenty of times at the Mandarin on 20th, and only came across pleasant (and/or strange) people. Never had a dirty glare thrown at me once.
I’ve also never heard of a gang shooting in Saskatoon, but have heard about Asian wars in Calgary. But that may just be blown out of proportion by the media.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
I’ve heard of a lot of gang stabbings in Saskatoon, and after all, Saskatoon and Regina residents typically have a greater chance of being murdered than any others in Canada and Saskatoon still ends up with the most violent crimes in the country last year. I have enjoyed the Mandarin as well, but the area is admittedly raunchy. No issues myself. Have heard of a few purse snatchings from women I’ve known who were shopping walking on 20 th, but then again, have a friend who was robbed down town, so Saskatoon’s crime is not just 20 th.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
It is difficult to compare AB with SK. There is no place on earth like Alberta. The activities in SK were started because of the economic growth in Alberta.
There is a big difference between the housing markets in Calgary/Edmonton and Saskatoon/Regina. In 2005 when oil prices went up, lot of money was invested in Alberta housing market.This over investment dried the demand as there were more inventries in market than demand. Realistically in Saskatoon/Regina we do not see so much activities by builders as compared to Calgary/Edmonton. This is the reason that 1250 houses is not a big deal as we see migration activities in SK.
I had a chance to work in PCS mine for a while and I quit after a week as wages are 25% less than Alberta. SK is facing skilled labour problem but it is not due to demand. It is due to less wage. In oil field lot of people from SK are working but nobody want to go back due to wage difference. As a while, there should be panic in market but the situation in Saskatoon/Regina is better than Calgary/Edmonton.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
My opinion is that the market is stabilizing, not busting. No doom and gloom here.
BTW: Heather – you are annoying. 2 year old temper tantrum in Walmart annoying.
That is all. Carry on.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Red Deer is comparable to Nanaimo or Kelowna BC. Abbotsford BC is a very close comparable to Red Deer in size and facilities – 100,000 population and a 1.5-2 hour drive from a large metro area. Saskatoon is comparable to Regina, Victoria, London (Ont), and Halifax in terms of facilities, importance, feel and population. A large, important university, a few head offices, a few small satellite towns and the fact that for its region aside from Regina, the capital, it is by far the largest centre in is region – distinguishes Saskatoon from Red Deer or Abbotsford -which I don’t see as true comparables.
Winnipeg could be an arguable comparable to Saskatoon but it is a larger centre. On that note, Winnipeg housing prices are quite a bit lower and probably have some catching up. I’ll just leave this topic to say that, personally, I prefer investing in cities as opposed to towns as I believe in times of slow economic growth, a metro area greater than 200,000 generally has a more diversified economy than smaller centres which depend on fewer industries. Even if commodity prices crashed, for instance, the presence of the U of S, the research facilities and high tech spin-offs would still keep things going in Saskatoon. I could make the same argument for some of the other cities mentioned. I’m sure there are others with a different point of view but my strategy of buying rental properties in larger centres with large universities has worked well for decades for myself.
As for oil and gas, I know for a fact that companies right now are moving into Saskatchewan to explore and develop. Alberta has lost any tax or cost advantages in this area. In fact, I can name a three companies I have shares in right now that are ramping up in a big way their Sask. operations particularly in the Bakken fields. With new horizontal drilling techniques, this resource is much easier and less costly to develop than the tar sands. So it is a reality that the energy industry is expanding its presence. This may or may not increase real estate prices but it does mean the bottom is not falling out of Saskatchewan any time soon.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Jim,
I guess I feel that with knife stabbings not many innocent bystanders would be at risk of getting hurt. I have to say though Saskatoon and Regina certainly don’t fare well with violent crime. Is Calgary’s violent crime rate significantly lower?
Candace,
You’ve made it very clear what you are, AND you shop at Walmart – ‘nuf said.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Yes Heather I shop at Walmart. I am “just” a hard working lower-middle class person shopping for my family.
What exactly are you inferring? Please explain. You clearly outed yourself as an elitist but I’m curious to hear it in your own words.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Ron said:
“Saskatoon is comparable to Regina, Victoria, London (Ont), and Halifax in terms of facilities, importance, feel and population.”
Well, speaking strictly in terms of population, that’s a little off.
According to the 2006 census, Saskatoon has 214,000 people (in the city) and 233,927 (in the ‘greater metro area’ which I assume means Warman and outer towns).
Regina has 194,971 people in the “greater metro area”.
Victoria, London and Halifax are all substantially larger:
London has more than twice Saskatoon’s population: it’s home to 457,720 people.
Halifax’s population is 372,858.
Victoria is the smallest: it’s 330,088, including Saanich.
Saskatoon’s size is odd: other than Regina, the closest places in size are Shebrooke Quebec and St. John’s Newfoundland. Both are smaller but not by much. There’s not many places of around 200,000 in this country.
I agree, though, that the University and the geographic isolation work to make Saskatoon punch well above its demographic weight.
Source for all this stuff is this page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_100_largest_metropolitan_areas_in_Canada
May 11th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
candace,
I’m an elitist in my own rite – I choose not to support Walmart, or McDonald’s. I’m boycotting them like many others have chosen to do for a multitude of reasons. I was a Walmart fanatic up until 3 years ago when I saw the documentary, “Walmart: The High Cost of Low Prices”. You can view the full-length film here:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3836296181471292925
It wasn’t as difficult as I thought it would be to give up both. I felt it was something I could do to help start the momentum towards change. There are many large companies that practice unethical conduct towards people in 3rd world countries, the environment, and their own employees. A person can’t boycott them all (unless you live “outside” of society), but if the worst offenders are targeted they can be pressured to make changes, and others will follow. It’s all in the hands of consumers.
As for McDonald’s, they’re not only associated with Walmart but they are also the largest fast food empire in our super-size nation, they specifically target children, and their employee standards are subpar.
This was probably WAY more information than you cared to hear, but I wanted to be thorough.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
jrochest,
Your numbers peaked my interest so I Wikipediaed this:
Red Deer AB: pop. 82,772
That’s bizarre… weren’t people on here saying Red Deer was comparable to Saskatoon? We’re more than 2.5X it’s size!
May 11th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
candace, walmart loves people such as yourself. you are their #1 type of customer. people who don’t give a crap where the goods they buy come from that is. child labor exploitation ? who cares right? as long as you get a deal on that shirt. third world labor market exploitation? oh well as long as good old saskatoon shoppers and all the other walmart shoppers in all the lands save their 50 cents. next time you are in there, here is a game you can play. spot the most oppressed workers game. people who have just thrown in the towel and resigned themselves to working for 10.24 per hour, those are the supervisors after 20 years as employees there.. everyone else is paid much less with a 10 cent raise maybe every 8 months if they are lucky.and believe me those supervisors hate their jobs and take it out on any cashier and others that they can. thats just my 2 cents on the walmart experience.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Lynn,
what a snotty, ignorant, and rude email. which has no purpose but to cut down people that work those jobs. Believe it or not real people work those jobs, and I know someone that actually likes working their.
These people are working and contributing, but it’s jerks like you who go on a public forum and cut them down. And for the “spot the most oppressed workers game” your a jerk
What happenned to this blog, before we used to talk about the housing market. Now it’s all about name calling, character assinations.
That sums it up, one last thing, Heather, quit being a tragity queen when people disagree with you.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
“That’s bizarre… weren’t people on here saying Red Deer was comparable to Saskatoon? We’re more than 2.5X it’s size!”
Well, what is comparable? Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg are all more than 2.5X Saskatoon’s last census 202,000 population and we here constant comparisons to them. No one’s saying Red Deer is our twin city. Just both are moderate size cities, with decent amenities, recent booming population growth (okay Red Deer wins there) and lots of available job opportunities. It’s just a decent sized, nice western Canadian city, with cheaper housing, and even shorter commutes than what we brag about in Saskatoon.
People here make it sound like we’re Calgary in Business and Humboldt in commute time, neither are true.
And Wikipedia also has a whole “crime” section for Saskatoon, so take it for what it’s worth.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Jroch, According to the 2006 census, Saskatoon has 214,000 people (in the city)
Actually, Saskatoon only had 202,340 in the 2006 census, even now, the City of Saskatoon website only has it at 208,000, and they’ll cautiously over estimate their own numbers.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Heather
Violent crimes per 100,000 people.
Saskatoon 1,606
Calgary 802
So, yes Calgary has a bit lower (okay less than half)
violent crime rate than Saskatoon.
Apparently, their bystanders are not harmed as often.
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/070718/d070718b.htm
Please book mark this link, as I’ve provided it a half dozen times and really is interesting to see HOW MUCH higher Saskatoon and Regina were to winning the title of most violent, wasn’t even close for third place, and Saskatchewan as a whole is much higher than other provinces too, so not an isolated thing based on a few crimes in our small city one year, well over 3,000 last year!
And Ron, from Wikipedia on Abbotsford, sounds pretty close to us:
“It is the 5th largest municipality in British Columbia and the 37th largest in Canada, home to 128,940 people (2006). Its Census Metropolitan Area numbers 159,020 people (23rd largest in Canada in 2006).”
And Kelowna, also wikipedia, got lazy for real #’s:
“Kelowna (2007 population 106,707, metropolitan population of 165,596) ”
Also pretty close to Saskatoon size wise,
remember as well Kelowna, far more isolated than Saskatoon, with no Regina 2 hours away, and a lot of “suburbs” and nearby cities with 30,000 to 50,000 people, so it also packs more punch than population alone.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Seems the Walmart argument is familiar, but here goes another thing about Walmart, a new Walmart does NOT mean anything economy wise. People are always saying how the whole Walmart and company development in Stonebridge is indicative of a retail “boom”.
In the States, you’ll see bigger new Walmarts in towns barely the size of P.A. (and certainly not the size of Red Deer). Often time these towns with one or two jumbo Walmarts also have a big Home Depot and a few similar big box stores. Some of these towns are in the crapper, despite the huge new Walmart. Maybe Walmart thrives because of places with low wages and high costs of living? Whatever the case, big new Walmart means nothing in terms of boom.
That and it’s not even that big in North American terms. All new Walmarts are huge.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Abbotsford isn’t a comparable to Saskatoon. It is to Red Deer. Abbotsford does not have a major university or corporate headquarters or any trendy shopping districts like Broadway. There are no important research facilities in Abbotsford. It may be warmer but it certainly is not charming either like Saskatoon, Victoria or Halifax – it is rather a sprawling spread out suburb. Kelowna is not nearly as economically important as Saskatoon – it is essentially a resort city, It is a satellite of Vancouver albeit a large one. Saskatoon is smaller than Halifax or Victoria but it is a comparable in terms of economic importance.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Kelowna is like 5 hours from Vancouver and a centre to a whole bunch of big cities, like Penticton, Vernon, Armstrong, even Westbank (not in Kelowna pop).
Westbank (Kelowna’s west side, just across the bridge)has a lot of industry, some semi truck manufacturer, factories and a pretty big looking industrial park with a couple big saw mills when you drive by. Kelowna area also has a lot of major vineyards and orchards are still pretty big business. Kelowna also has nice cultural areas (plural), a nice waterfront with pubs and restaurants and little shops, a couple huge resort-convention centres, and a mall that seems way bigger than Midtown (Orchard Park), that and a pretty good cultural scene. It also has UBC Okanagan, which while smaller than U of S, is linked to UBC which kicks U of S’s butt in pretty much everything academic, including research.
What all the Red Deer stuff is getting at is that there are other decent sized places, Red Deer, Kelowna (which I like), Kamploops, Abbotsford, Prince George etc… which may not be the exact same, but are pretty decent places. Saskatoon’s a lot closer to those places size wise, at 202,000, they all lack a pro sports team, we have a river, others have lakes or rivers too.
There’s nothing wrong with comparing a smaller place like Red Deer, after all, we’re not that comparable at all to Calgary or Edmonton, with bigger universities, better cultural districts Whyte>>>Broadway, Calgary has an actual down town, pro sports, huge malls, proximity to mountains, olympic level training facilities, way more corporate head quarters than us, of more diverse companies.
Calling Saskatoon a substantial corporate centre is speaking pretty highly of Potash Corp and Cameco.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Arron,
I have no problems with others that have a different POV than my own.
“before we used to talk about the housing market”
I don’t ever recall you even posting on here before.
“Now it’s all about name calling, character assinations.” This seems a bit
hypocritical considering the title you gave me.
Jim,
I guess it’s as jrochest was saying, Saskatoon’s population is a strange number, not many cities are comparable in size. I will definitely bookmark that link when I get home. Those are some crazy interesting stats! Calgary is indeed MUCH less saturated with violent crimes comparitively.
Doug,
I very much agree with what you’ve said. I was outraged when I found out the City of Saskatoon was going to (and maybe did?) offer Walmart a tax break for building a new store! Why does a company like WALMART need a tax break from us?! Did they really require a bribe to build a new store here? I seriously doubt it.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Doug,
I would say the fact that Saskatchewan is leading the country for increased retail spending is probably more indicative of a “retail boom” than what Walmart is building.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Norm,
Another possibility is people in Saskatoon are just going deeper into debt. To me retail spending isn’t indicative of success. Look at the U.S.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Heather,
I didn’t say retail spending was indicative of success. I said it was better proof of a retail boom than a new Wal-mart.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
aaron,obviously you did not get the gist of my post. I have nothing bad to say about people who work at walmart. My diatribe is directed at WALMART, not the ordinary employees. maybe you should get a dictionary and look up the word oppressed. you do not seem to understand the word too well. some of the supervisors need a lot better training on how to treat staff. a friend’s daughter worked there and when bleach spilled on her hand from a loose lid on a bottle she had to beg to go to the washroom to wash off the bleach that was burning her skin. that is only one story of many that I will not get into because as you say this is a real estate blog. one more thing though, ask your friend what happens if you breath the word “union” in a walmart. thats why their wages and benefits will always suck.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
arron, its quite funny and very hypocritical you complain about this blog’s name calling and character assinations when you called me a jerk numerous times in your post. maybe you should take the time and understand what someone is saying before taking such a defensive tone.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
I just remember a whole bunch of people, all proud about how huge the new Walmart store would be, “biggest in Western Canada” and showing “we’re a big league city” okay stuff people said at work but still, hilarious when small stagnant American towns that wish they had Red Deer or Kelowna industry (just kidding!) have a bigger Walmart! Walmart is bigger each generation, so of course newest will be biggest.
Retail sales are more about consumer confidence (which is good) than indicative of actual fundamentals. I’ve heard Sask debt levels are at an all time high. Borrowing to furnish the house you couldn’t afford on the 40 year mortage … hopefully not from Walmart (or Ashley, their return policy sucks)
May 11th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Sorry, Jim! I do like Kelowna as a place to visit and Abbotsford has well over 100,000 people but neither are in the category of Saskatoon in terms of “urbanization degree and importance” so to speak. Kelowna is a fabulous resort city, has some very upscale housing and has a bright future with its waterfront developments. It does lack the big university. The Kelowna UBC extension campus is really quite small and cannot come close to the U of S in terms of importance or student population. There is no medical, law, vet school there and it doesn’t have the cultural punch of the U of S. There is no high grade biological research facility or the light facility as you have in Saskatoon. Kelowna doesn’t have any big corporate HQ’s – in fact it lost Western Star Trucks which was one of the only major ones – and that couldn’t even come close at all to Potash or Cameco in global importance. OK – Kelowna does have some small high tech companies which are growing.
On that note, Potash is a huge multinational company and the most valuable company on the TSX – it has huge market/pricing power over the world’s fertilizer production. Cameco controls a fifth of the world’s uranium supply! These are not trifling operations.
As for Abbotsford, the same comments apply. It does have a lot of mega churches but no big university and no real “walkable” downtown core or “hip” shopping streets.
More importantly is the “feel” of the centre. This is somewhat difficult to describe but Saskatoon to me just feels like a bigger, denser, more cultured/complex city than Abbotsford, Red Deer, Prince George or Kelowna and more charming, too. Again, the closest comparables to Saskatoon (17) would seem to be Victoria (15), Regina (18), maybe Halifax (13) in terms of degree of urbanization.
Of course, I might add that housing prices in Abbotsford and especially Kelowna are higher than Saskatoon. Kelowna is outrageously priced, in fact, without corresponding (local) incomes to match.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
I’d argue Kelowna has a much better cultural and arts feel than Saskatoon. I think anyone in Kelowna would laugh at you if you told them Saskatoon had more of a “feel”. Abbotsford is similar priced, and I think cheaper for condos. Red Deer is cheaper for housing and condos and pays more. Halifax kills us in “feel” with its culture, history, cool fort, Keith’s > GW, ocean (ocean view is cooler, and much cheaper, than Saskatoon river view). Dal is a better university too.
I think they key is if you are about a research university, Edmonton with now cheaper housing, and the U of A kicks the U of S’s academic butt at EVERYTHING (minus they don’t have a vet school, though Calgary soon will!). The U of S’s college of medicine is tiny and was on academic probation forever, actually consecutive terms. The U of A (and everywhere else in Canada) lacks a synchrotron but has oodles of high tech goodies (NMR’s etc) in quantity and quality far beyond Saskatoon.
Edmonton’s cultural scene is far superior. I don’t think anyone who’s been to Whyte and it’s clubs and venues would argue this, without considering the rest of the city at all! Yes Edmonton’s commute is longer (if you don’t live near work) but Lloyd’s is shorter!
My main point, we keep spouting small town convenience. There are a lot of small town, more convenient places, granted more Red Deer than Abbotsford (I don’t think I was ever really that pro Abbotsford, just said almost 160,000 pop was close to us) than Saskatoon.
To explain, Saskatoon says:
Smaller than Calgary but more services than small town, ie Red Deer … (omit less than Calgary/Etown)
so best of both worlds but…
others could say:
Calgary/Edmonton, smaller than T.O. but more services than Saskatoon, and pro hockey!
Red Deer, smaller than Saskatoon, so no traffic jams over the university bridge! but way more stuff than Drumheller
Toronto, smaller than New York but bigger than Warman!
Point is, there are other, cheaper decent places out there. If we want to come across as a cheaper, friendlier, more livable Calgary, then Red Deer is the cheaper, friendlier, more livable Saskatoon.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Why don’t we agree to disagree. Didn’t Ron bring up Kelowna as a bad comparison here? I think we were all talking about affordable alternatives, like Red Deer, existing. Kelowna is beautiful, but out of everyone’s price range. Surprisingly for retirees, Vernon, also warmer, drier than here, and even better lakes, is surprisingly similar for semi detached decent condos, low 300’s. Some good profit off of a now $500,000 family home sale…
The point I think we started at, there are nice places to move
May 11th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Know what’s not a bad small town? Fort St John BC. They have oil and gas up there, so still pretty expensive, but lots of jobs and really high paying. I have a buddy who moved there, just heard from him, he’s making Alberta money, in a place with nice wilderness for the weekends and has all the OPTIONAL over time he wants to make extra coin. Was established decent sized town, so he says the school system up there is really good too. He claims his kids have it better than in Saskatoon.