Saskatoon real estate: Week in review (September 22-26 2008)
New Saskatoon real estate listings increased marginally from last week as a total of 139 properties were offered for sale on the MLS system including 122 single-family homes and condominiums. Total active listings increased from 1,739 last week to finish the week at 1,756 units including 1,094 houses and 543 condos. 39 sellers used the “cancel and relist” strategy to adjust their asking price and an additional 121 price changes were processed through the course of the week.
This past week produced the highest level of sales activity that we’ve seen since the week of July 28-August 1 with a total of 70 house and condo sales firming up, but just 20 additional properties are displaying the “conditional sale” flag, about 50% lower than what’s typical lately.
The average selling price was significantly lower than it has been in recent weeks, but a couple of large sales kept it above the $300,000 mark for the third consecutive week. Another residential sale over one million dollars was processed this week so the average selling price for the week was still subject to some skewing. The monthly numbers will also be affected. To the best of my knowledge this is the first month ever in which two residential sales topped that benchmark.
The percentage of sales that occurred at, or above the list price spiked higher than in recent weeks as five sellers get their asking price and four received an average of $18,000 more.
I’ve missed a couple of big housing stories this week. I’ve been away at a conference in St. John’s since Wednesday so a busy schedule has prevented me from spending much time here. To top it off, the hosting company that has been hosting my images seems to have performed a disappearing act so all of my free time has been spent switching hosts to get my images back online. I’ll try to write something about the new Merrill Lynch report, and the paper that Scotiabank released in response.
See a Google map displaying the boundaries of Saskatoon real estate “areas” here
Data collection and calculation for our statistical reports
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
There's 141 Comments So Far
April 27th, 2009 at 9:27 am
For anyone curious, but who hasn’t run the numbers themselves, that million-dollar sale was worth about $10k to the average house price. Take out one million dollars and divide the rest of the week’s sales by 69 (instead of 70) and the average was $291,140.
I’ll be honest and say that the numbers of the last three weeks have surprised me a little. Things looked like they were heading straight into the toilet for most of August, but September has been relatively stable in terms of sales and prices. Inventory is still huge, of course, which one would assume is going to have an effect in the long-term, but things are strangely … normal right now.
*Is* this the new normal, or are we sitting in the eye of the hurricane?
April 27th, 2009 at 9:27 am
I think that there are around 200 sales so far this month. Average price is above 300k. New listings just under 600. Total inventory is at 1756. So about 8 months of inventory?
20 additional properties conditional sold. That is small. I wonder if this is because of what is going on in the States. I think people are scared to buy anything at the moment, nevermind a house.
I have noticed there are now many incentives to buy from builders. Cash back of 25k, or getting appliances, landscaping and deck with house purchase. Expect more incentives coming into the slow season.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:28 am
Bookrat,
I am thinking that we are sitting in the eye of the hurricane.
Why?
First time buyers and investors are still priced out. So it is only trade up buyers buying right now, people who have equity that are actually in the housing market.
This is why there are so few sales this month and the average price is still quite high.
I believe the peak in prices was around April, since then prices have come down. There have been a tonne of reductions in the last 4 months. Our market is quite small so the average price can be skewed easily as we have seen.
The hurricane is new mortgage rules, the pool of buyers being tapped out, more inventory coming online ( housing starts have not quieted down yet) and don’t forget the trouble in the States that will affect the whole world, even the island of Saskatchewan.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:28 am
George,
You can add to the list the effect of the credit crunch on Canadian banks:
- lending conditions have been tightened on applicants and property appraisal value
- on Thursday and Friday the major banks raised their fixed and variable mortgage rates. 5 year fixed up by .35% and discount off variable rate reduced to 0 from .5% This will have a significant effect on FTB’s
April 27th, 2009 at 9:29 am
Whoa. It looks like Sunday is the new Monday, newswise. Wachovia, is on the ropes tonight:
Citigroup and Wells Fargo Said to Be Bidding for Wachovia
http://tinyurl.com/4rjm3u
It seems odd Citi could think of pulling this off, and if they can’t, I’d argue they’ll be next.
A couple of mortgage lenders in the UK and one in Germany are either going BK/being nationalized too.
It’s bound to be an interesting week, no?
April 27th, 2009 at 9:29 am
Hmmm,
“Also watch for who’s buying corporations and land at pennies on the dollar when this all goes down.”
April, 2008
Pretty soon a hand full of corporations will own everything. Can you say “One world government”.
I also love how after going in to Iraq to fight for freedom “er, steal the oil”, the U.S. will soon direct all their forces North towards the Caspian Sea. Gotta get control of those pipelines too. Why else is the U.S. pissed off at Russia for going in to Georgia.
As for the Saskatoon market… This has been a much needed break.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:29 am
Bookrat,
That sale actually came in just over 1.4 million so the impact is even greater. Remember also, there was a plus 1 million dollar sale in another of the weeks in September. This month’s numbers are definitely skewed higher by these particular units.
George,
Total res sales are at 217 today. We’ll likely see 25-30 more reported today and Tuesday. All things considered, not a bad September at all. Remains to be seen if it’s just a pre-October 15 rush to beat the changing mortgage rules.
Crikey,
It’s enough to make one’s head spin.
We must be getting short on majors that can still go broke.
Northstar,
Nice to see you again.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:37 am
Crikey,
it seems that every troubled bank is being swallowed by another bank. Do they even need the bailout? Or are these banks buying the troubled banks in hopes they get more of the bailout, so they do not really lose.
Seems like they need something so people can stay in their homes. Until house prices stop falling they will have trouble.
U.S. median house price = 205k and falling.
Canada is well over 300k.
Are not wages comparable for the two countries?
April 27th, 2009 at 9:37 am
Saskatchewan population grows to 1,015,985. Up 16,000 from last year.
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080929/d080929b.htm
April 27th, 2009 at 9:40 am
George,
Don’t think that becuase this is a merger it won’t cost the US taxpayer! Looks like Citi did pull it off, with help from the FDIC. The FDIC gets its’ money from the Treasury, yes? Where does the US Treasury get its’ money? This is an exerpt from an article I read this morning:
“The FDIC has entered into a loss sharing arrangement on a pre-identified pool of loans. Under the agreement, Citigroup Inc. will absorb up to $42 billion of losses on a $312 billion pool of loans. The FDIC will absorb losses beyond that. Citigroup has granted the FDIC $12 billion in preferred stock and warrants to compensate the FDIC for bearing this risk.”
Remind me not to go used car shopping with these geniuses.
As to the US vs. Candadian wage parity- let’s just see what the US uneployment numbers for September look like.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:44 am
Crikey,
I believe wages are comparable, but I expect US unemployment numbers to jump up quite a bit. If the bailout does not work, I have read unemployment got hit 20% there. That does not bold well for us because they are our biggest trading partner and our debt is not in good shape either.
Up to 2003 Canada debt-to-GDP ratio was higher the US, but since then, US has overtaken us and the gap was widened since then.
Canada’s debt burden has declined from the second highest to the lowest in the G7
http://www.budget.gc.ca/2007/bp/bpa2e.html
The scary thing about Debt-to GDP ratio is that Italy and Japan have a higher number than the States in the G8, even after this bailout. The whole world is swimming in debt.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:47 am
700 Billion Dollars, is that a lot of money or what?
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=ed72ed5e-1ac3-4705-86c9-45bcb8a9642c
“Total outstanding mortgage debt at the end of year in 2007 was $821.4 billion.” This is Canada’s outstanding mortgage debt at the end of 2007.
The Canada housing bubble just put people into more debt. The bigger the wage, the more credit you qualified for.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:47 am
The most dangerous financial cliché in history
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/the-most-dangerous-financial-cliche-in-history-13706.aspx
April 27th, 2009 at 9:48 am
Canada mortgages rise, expected to go down in a few months
http://watch.bnn.ca/clip96886#clip96886
April 27th, 2009 at 9:48 am
Bailout package rejected!
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/09/29/us-bailout.html
TSX plummets 800 points.
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/09/29/stocks-dive.html
European banks faltering.
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/09/29/europe-banks.html
Day of imfamy guys. Best of luck to all.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:48 am
Wow. I was against the bailout from the beginning (and sent some emails and faxes myself) but I never expected the US congress to actually listen to it’s constituents! It doesn’t feel like anything was “won”, however- whatever the outcome, it’s clearly not going to be good. I found a great analogy regarding the the financial crisis/bailout, and thought I’d share it here. Sorry for the length:
The Crisis Explained – Really
Analogies are never perfect, but here’s one using horse racing. Don’t expect a perfect correspondence to the banking situation, but I think it is close enough for government work.
Joe goes to the track and bets $2 on a horse. Two guys standing nearby get into a discussion and Fred says to Sam, “I’ll bet you $5 that Joe wins his bet.” Next to them are Bill and Bob. Bill says: “I’ll bet you $10 that Fred welshes on his bet if he loses.” Next to them is Sally. Sally says: “For $3 I’ll guarantee to Bill that if Bob fails to pay off, I’ll make good on the bet.”
Sally then goes to Mary and borrows the $7 needed in case she has to ever pay off and promises to pay back $8. She doesn’t expect to every have to pay since she believes Bob will always make good. So she expects to net $2 no matter what happens to Joe.
A quick calculation indicates that there is now 2+5+10+3+7 = $27 riding on the outcome of the horse race. Question how much has been “invested” in the horse race? Answer:
$50,000 by the owner of the horse who is expecting to recoup his investment from the winnings of the horse and other future deals. Everyone else is gambling, not investing. The issue with the home market is that the only “investor” was the person who bought the home. All those engaged in the meaningless derivatives spun off from this are gambling.
You can see how quickly the face value of all these side bets can exceed the underlying investment. Who is holding these side bets – not the homeowner? It is the people at the failing investment banks, hedge funds and similar enterprises. Notice that the bailout is being directed at them not the homeowners.
The real world is, of course, even more complicated. Over the last 30 years people have been allowed to place bets on everything starting with the value of stock averages. They might as well bet on the temperature in Newark at 8:00 AM.
So when you hear everybody saying this is a crisis caused by the housing collapse, be skeptical. We are in the midst of a classic pyramid or Ponzi scheme and there is no way out except for people to lose a lot of money. All that is different this time is that it is the taxpayers who are being asked for the cash.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Guy in regina, you beat me to the stocks dive link on cbc. You all may notice no more dirk comments on cbc, I have been blocked from the sight, so am now under another name…
You missed that oil is down to $95 a barrel!
Interesting that the TSX is down more than the Dow
Good for filling up our tanks,
not so good for oil and gas in Saskatchewan.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Crikey,
bailout fails? maybe democracy does live in the States after all.
Banks are teetering on the edge in almost every country in Europe, as well as in Russia and the Asian markets.
I have said before that this worldwide housing bubble was created with easy cheap credit.
But I did not think that this cheap credit would lead to a market crash.
My great grandparents went through the depression. They never used a bank after that. They buried their money on the farm. Grade 2 education. They never trusted the banks. Said they were crooks, same as the government. I should have listened to them, but no, I am smarter.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Previous close for TSX was 12,126.00.
Now just over 11,000.
Down from a high of 15,154.80 in the spring.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Most stories this year about Canadian housing said we are in for a soft landing. A few like Merril said we were going to crash.
With the financial crisis, there will surely be a RE crash here. But it will be blamed on the financial crisis, not because of speculation and people being overextended with mortgages and debt.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:51 am
So looks like the number of foreclosures doubled in Alberta, of course the Real Estate Investment Association isn’t concerned…
Still calls for ongoing losses in Alberta real estate and incresing foreclosures:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/edmonton/story/2008/09/28/mortgage-woes.html
April 27th, 2009 at 9:52 am
What has happened to the north end?
Using the data from this site (going back to June 2007), the percentage of sales in Area 3 as a function of the whole has been ~12% (median weekly value).
September 2008 has seen that plummet, however, to under seven percent — just 12 out of 205 homes. The three worst weeks in the last 65 have been Sep 1-5, 15-19 and 22-26. Furthermore, based on the average price (which is also dropping) a lot of what HAS sold has been condos.
Now, as I live in the north end, I know that there’s as many For Sale signs up here as there are anywhere else… so why isn’t anything moving?
At a guess: stuff up here is quite overpriced, and people here are even less willing to budge on price than folks in other areas… but that’s just a hypothesis. Anyone else got one?
lol@the captcha: Rivierview plaster
April 27th, 2009 at 9:53 am
@bookrat,
“At a guess: stuff up here is quite overpriced, and people here are even less willing to budge on price than folks in other areas… but that’s just a hypothesis. Anyone else got one?”
Um…. no.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:54 am
@Crikey:
No = that’s not what it is?
or
No = you don’t have a different hypothesis?
You leave a lot to guesswork with two-letter answers.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:55 am
I’m going with um no meaning agreement.
No more complicated than sellers in denial, refusing to budge. No big deal. Not like in a market with 50 sales a week, and growing inventory above 1,750 units, or 35+ weeks of inventory, they’re going to sell anyway.
Sellers loss. Buyers have a lot of choice. Or can choose to move some where with cheaper housing and higher wages.
Until of course sellers decide they actually need to sell, and take a big cut off the asking price.
April 27th, 2009 at 9:56 am
Cramer: Here’s What’s in Store
1. worldwide economic collapse;
2. a depression that is a sequel equal to the Great Depression;
3. many, many more bank collapses than we have had already; and
4. much more unemployment and many, many foreclosures.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10439868/1/cramer-heres-whats-in-store.html?
April 27th, 2009 at 9:59 am
dirk,
don’t you bears get it? There IS NO WHERE that offers cheaper housing and higher wages….
oh wait…i forgot i’m a bear.. *steals pic-a-nic basket*
April 27th, 2009 at 10:00 am
This hurricane will hit Canadian shores
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080929.COSTANFORD29/TPStory/politics
April 27th, 2009 at 10:01 am
Sorry, that answer was more than a bit flippant.
No other hypothesis comes immediately to my mind.
Samples are small, and easily skewed, but it seems strange to imagine the trend would continue over several weeks to a greater degree than other areas.
Clearly Norm could answer this question, if anyone could.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:01 am
“Clearly Norm could answer this question, if anyone could.”
Um…. no.
Bookrat, Only three single-family sales in the past 30 days between Lawson, Silverwood and River Heights. I can only guess that those who are buying are finding homes which appear to offer better value elsewhere.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:02 am
Families who’ve re-invested their ‘equity’ back into the houses, and can’t afford to sell for less?
Watching, awestruck, as the markets plunge screaming out of the sky…wow. That’s really something.
I never thought I’d agree with Republicans, but I think the US treasury will need that money to jump start the economy: I don’t think a Wall Street bailout is actually going to stop this market from collapsing.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:03 am
We could be in for a roller coaster on the financial markets this week. Remember for every stock sold there was a buyer. Maybe the “smart money” was buying in at the bottom today I am curious what Armoth thinks. Armoth are you buying more XIU and averaging down? Is this the time for bystanders to get in on XIU or commodities?
April 27th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Quite the muted response on here. I thought this blog would be buzzing.
I guess people gotta take stock of the situation.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:05 am
If you need a laugh, $389K for a 1 bedroom apartment.
http://www.saskhouses.com/listing/detail/?listing_id=14547
April 27th, 2009 at 10:06 am
Words can’t explain how i HOLY @#@#!!!
ahem
April 27th, 2009 at 10:07 am
What I especially love about that listing, is that there are (magically) no photos of the actual INSIDE…
April 27th, 2009 at 10:07 am
“Remember for every stock sold there was a buyer”
Not true. A large part of the decline today was due to the lack of shorts. There were multiple instances this afternoon of bids literally disappearing on individual stocks – that’s something that is the direct result of forbidding shorting.
Let’s also remember that 40% of today’s losses occurred BEFORE the announcement that the bailout legislation had failed.
This has been overlooked by much of the MSM as well:
http://tinyurl.com/3j2ey2
“Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve will pump an additional $630 billion into the global financial system, flooding banks with cash to alleviate the worst banking crisis since the Great Depression.
The Fed increased its existing currency swaps with foreign central banks by $330 billion to $620 billion to make more dollars available worldwide. The Term Auction Facility, the Fed’s emergency loan program, will expand by $300 billion to $450 billion. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are among the participating authorities.
The Fed’s expansion of liquidity, the biggest since credit markets seized up last year, came hours before the U.S. House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion bailout for the financial industry. The crisis is reverberating through the global economy, causing stocks to plunge and forcing European governments to rescue four banks over the past two days alone.”
The Fed threw $630 billion into the market (a good chunk of which came from Canada’s central bank) before the vote, and yet global markets fell precipitously anyway, and in fact tanked after the vote.
So- Paulson’s plan was $700 billion, and Bernanke spend $630 billion *almost the entire amount proposed* and failed to fix the problem.
The markets were good and ready to tank and unwind anyway, and throwing money at the problem will only prolong the agony. The markets will not recover in any meaningful way, and credit markets will not start to flow, until investors regain confidence in the system. Right now there is absolutely nothing to trust about the “free market” system. There is, however, a flicker of light that this ridiculous bill was struck down.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:08 am
“Quite the muted response on here. I thought this blog would be buzzing.
I guess people gotta take stock of the situation.”
Go hang out on Motley Fool or Report on Business, or Bloomberg, or CNN Money, or the WSJ.
Isn’t this the Stoon Real Estate Blog?
Anybody got anything to about the Saskatoon Real Estate market? Or is this now guy_in_regina’s blog? Or Crikey’s personal blog?
April 27th, 2009 at 10:09 am
Callum,
If Norm asks me to leave, I will gladly go, and wish him well.
I, however, will do nothing for you.
Suck it up, my friend.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:10 am
Talk about real estate then genius.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:10 am
Hello Crikey,
I am very confused by your comments regarding short selling. Please clarify the following two comments.
“decline was due to a lack of shorts”
Shorting = selling. The inability to short means there are less people selling shares which decreases downward pressure. How does not being able to short cause the market to go down?
“bids disappearing – direct result of forbidding shorting” How does a lack of people buying shares have anything to do with an inability to short shares?
Thanks.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:12 am
outta here, didn’t realize this was the Dow Jones report…
April 27th, 2009 at 10:12 am
@callum:
Geeze, no love for the guy who was on-topic?
April 27th, 2009 at 10:13 am
I said:
“Remember for every stock sold there was a buyer”
Crikey said:
“Not true. A large part of the decline today was due to the lack of shorts”
——————–
My statement is TRUE. When I sell my stock some buyer gives me money for it. That is why we call it a trade. The share prices fell fast because the buyers (or market makers) just kept bidding less and less and the sellers wanted out.
On the subject of shorts. In the US and Canada the temporary restriction on short selling is only on financial stocks (with few exceptions). The market makers are still allowed to short financial stocks.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:13 am
Take it to another blog ya idjuts
April 27th, 2009 at 10:14 am
Callum,
In the last week I have made several real estate related posts. None had any comments by you. I have not seen any posts by you recently about Saskatoon real estate – just rants agains other posters.
Let’s try and have a constructive dialogue. Soooo – on the subject of real estate what have you bought, sold or considered in Saskatoon recently? What are your predictions for the Saskatoon real estate market in the next few months? It would be interesting to hear the reasons for your predictions as well.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:14 am
For *** sake ask crikey and guy_in_regina what real estate they own. That’s my point. I’m invested in this real estate market. These types just come on here to talk stocks, it’s annoying.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:15 am
callum,
Isn’t everybody talking stocks right now? It’s not like this particular crisis isn’t completely tied to real estate and credit.
“Saskatchewhiners” make John Gormley’s show again! Apparently some of you are too much for a “card carrying NDP member” to handle.
The audio clip is here
April 27th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Gormley is hilarious. I don’t understand what his problem is then…if he thinks people that frequent a certain site over and over, have no credibility, then why doesn’t he post on here and ASK to interview one or more of ‘these people’ he talks about…that way he can officially discredit them live on the air if they are so entirely wrong.
He says there is no debate…that is correct when you don’t try to actually have one.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:19 am
callum,
Saskatoon real estate numbers show that there is about 8 months of inventory. Average price will be above 300k for September but this number is skewed by most buyers being upgraders. There are very few first time buyers and investors.
A couple of good points for Saskatoon real estate.
Canadian economy booms in July
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080930.wgdp0930/BNStory/Business/home
Saskatchewan population grows
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080929/d080929b.htm
April 27th, 2009 at 10:20 am
I wish Gormley would shut and move.
Its really no wonder that a dinosaur whose livelihood is directly attached to old media would consider online commentary a threat.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Callum,
Still waiting for you to say something about real estate…..
April 27th, 2009 at 10:21 am
George,
Would you mind sharing with us how you have concluded that there is an eight month supply of inventory? I’m seeing 5-6 in “the numbers.” You must have factored in some projected declines in demand, but I’d love to know how you’re getting there.
Director,
He does make a good point about anonymity. It’s interesting how the dynamics of a discussion change when all of the parties are known.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:21 am
One thing that has not been mentioned are the amount of price reductions every week. They are 2 to 3 times more price reductions than there are sales. These people are motivated to sell, but even with the reduction, there will be trouble to sell.
I believe the peak in pricing was in May, regardless of the average price. Since then, there have been more listings, and more price reductions. I would say the average loss is %2 for each month since May.
For a 525K house listed in June. It is now about 485k.
For a 325k house listed in June. It is now about 300k.
Even if the house price is reduced, it is still very hard to sell. There are more listings and less demand compared to spring.
There is tonnes of inventory that is moving very slow that is why there are incentives from builders up to $35,000. I would expect more incentives, and more price reductions in the coming months. It will eventually become a buyers market. It is not there yet.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:22 am
Norm, I figured there would be about 225 sales in September with 1750 listings. So about 8 months inventory.
But looking at your numbers show 217 sales with 20 conditional at the end of the last week. So I am going to guess 250 sales for September. 1750/250 = 7 months.
I do believe we are going into a slower demand coming into this fall and winter season. New mortgage rules and uncertainty in the markets will play a factor in this as well as the high prices and the pool of buyers drying up.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:22 am
George,
I believe that we’ll be somewhere below 250 units for September. Just the same, I think “months of inventory” assessments are normally based on historical data. It’s not right to take the total inventory and divide it by one month of unit sales. This is what we call, “makin’ stuff up.”
April 27th, 2009 at 10:22 am
So – given all the numbers being thrown about – how is that new subdivsions are going ahead? I have heard advertisements for the new Rosewood subdivision 2 or 3 times per day. When you drive through Willowgrove, Stonebridge, or Hampton Village you see tonnes of for sale signs and empty lots. Does the economic indicators and number of houses on the market not slow down new Home Buildings and new subdivisions? or are there going to be “ghost subdivisions” with new houses but no one in them?
April 27th, 2009 at 10:24 am
ok since Callum doesn’t want to talk about stocks how about the job market in Sask. http://news.sympatico.msn.ctv.ca/abc/home/contentposting.aspx?isfa=1&feedname=CTV-TOPSTORIES_V3&showbyline=True&newsitemid=CTVNews%2f20080930%2fOntario_Saskatchewan_080930
So i did a search on admin/finance jobs in Regina cause I’m always tempted to get out gunslinging Calgary. Out of all the jobs listed there were about 5 legit finance jobs and all required designations. The rest were accounting clerk jobs or bookkeeping jobs at accounting firms. {sigh} can’t come back to Sask and buy a 400k house only making 35k/year.
I ‘m sure the labour/trades market is much better but I am not built to be a labour guy. {should have went to trade school doh!}
btw I haven’t check Stoon but I am assuming it is probably the same.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:24 am
“He does make a good point about anonymity. It’s interesting how the dynamics of a discussion change when all of the parties are known.”
Absolutely. You never know what angle someone is really coming from if you don’t know who they are or who they represent (Stockhouse Bullboards, anyone?).
I guess the flip side of that is a centralized information distribution model like commercial radio. If Gormley or his masters don’t like what you have to say, they can cut off your call, or not let you on in the first place. No one can effectively do that online.
I’ll take anonymous freedom over identified control any day.
That’s why I come here for my real estate news instead of the talk radio or local newspapers.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:24 am
Vinny,
Glad to see you’re doing your research. It’s tough finding a job especially in another city when they don’t usually disclose the salary in the title (unless it’s for the City, or University, or other more ‘public’ sector places…saskpower etc i would guess)
Look into them. I remember someone saying thier wife had gotten a job being a receptionist just out of a local college (certificate program) that is making well over $40k a year…of course I don’t believe it….but that’s just me being a negative whiner as some would say.
Yeah all people will say to you at the end of the day job wise, is that ‘you should have went into oil, potash etc…or done some labour jobs..’ which is fine for some, but personally, I went to school so I would HAVE a deskjob…but that’s just me.
To buy on a 35k a year salary you’d be looking in the 100k range which of course has a fantastic selection…
April 27th, 2009 at 10:28 am
LOVE how Wall when confronted by the host on how housing cost is rising, he IMMEDIATELY went away from it…
*punches monitor*
April 27th, 2009 at 10:30 am
In all fairness I watched it again, and he didn’t really jump away like i originally thought, but that should be addressed for sure when he’s trying to get people here becuase I think that is a valid concern, about are these jobs going to pay enough to rent, etc etc…
April 27th, 2009 at 10:32 am
The economy both intrigues and mystifies me. I just can’t seem to wrap my head around it.
If everybody in the world (people, banks, nations) owes everyone else money, who had it to lend in the first place? Where did it go? If the money got spent it has to go somewhere! Its like one of those ball and shell games. So does someone have all the money in the world, or is it so convoluted that the numbers people are throwing around are essentially meaningless on a grand scale? Maybe there never was any money in the first place… its all an illusion!
Doesn’t it seem totally ironic that something as tangible as real estate tipped this whole thing off?
I don’t know what to think. Paying off loans doesn’t even seem like a safe bet, since the lending institution might not be there tomorrow. It has really gotta suck living in the States right now.
I think Canada’s only hope is if China’s economy can stand on its own… and that we can sell natural resources to them. Yes, that leaves Ontario SOL, but somebody in a country has to bring in some money.
I’m so confused! I think I’ll go and have a nice tangible sandwich and do things that don’t involve money.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Norm and Director,
“He does make a good point about anonymity. It’s interesting how the dynamics of a discussion change when all of the parties are known.”
I agree to some extent. However, sometimes you need to make room for opinions that would be shouted down by the Gormleys of the world. Anonimity is one way to do that.
There’s a reason we vote by secret ballot, for example.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Yes, the comment about anonymity is a good one, so I’ve decided to partially “out” myself in solidarity with the idea.
I’ll try to keep the “annoying” talk to a minimum. These times seem quite historic, and there are many very intelligent people on this blog whom I enjoy discussing these issues with.
Roger,
“Remember for every stock sold there was a buyer”
Yes, that is true eventually. I’m talking about the repeated “no bid” scenario prior to it’s eventually selling. My comment was directed toward the idea that maintaining the financial shorting ban could actually distort edgy markets. Without short sellers, investors have a harder time gauging the true value of a stock. This ban could, and probably did, inflate the value of finacials, opening the door for a big downward correction later.
Say you are a hedge fund that shorts stocks and uses the proceeds to go long. You are in cash. By banning the shorts/hedge funds for financials and changing the rules of the game, you are removing liquidity and also removing short covering that would have helped probably a little at the close yesterday.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Norm,
at best, its an educated guess. Historically speaking, numbers are usually strong in the fall with sales to listings being pretty high. But this past year sales to listings has gone down quite a bit. YOY sales have decreased every month since February. I expect more of the same going forward.
I agree with you that taking the total inventory and divide it by one month of sales is not the proper way to gauge months of inventory. I can see the problem with this come Dec. if we have only 150 sales with 1800 listings which would equal 12 months of inventory. This would not be a true indicator of the market.
Hard to have a true indicator months of inventory with so many listings, so few sales and other factors such as time of year, stock market , consumer confidence, new mortgage rules coming, population increasing, etc.
Sure was easier when inventory was only around 500. Seems like a long time ago
April 27th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Laura,
You might find it helpfull to do a google search for ‘money as debt’. The video explains a lot about the foundations of the economy and offers perspective about what is happening right now.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Norm said: “George… I think “months of inventory” assessments are normally based on historical data. It’s not right to take the total inventory and divide it by one month of unit sales. This is what we call, “makin’ stuff up.”
”
All-About-The-Numbers Man here, weighing in on this.
Average out the monthly sales in Saskatoon since 2004. Including aberrant periods like March 2008, here’s what you get:
Jan-196 May-413 Sep-280
Feb-312 Jun-378 Oct-256
Mar-423 Jul-348 Nov-242
Apr-359 Aug-317 Dec-162
So, Assuming that no new homes come on the market, and that homes sell at an historical rate, when will we run out of current inventory?
1750 (current) – 256 (Oct) – 242 – 162 = 1091 by Dec 31.
1091 (Jan 1 2009) – 196 (Jan) – 312 – 423 = 160 by March 31 2009.
Since April historically has 359 sales, we’ll run out after about 6.5 months… based on the above assumptions.
If you look at only the 2004-2006 averages — removing the bubble period from the numbers — then we run out in mid-May 2009 … about 7.5 months. Since this model much more accurately reflects the sale pace in Saskatoon over the last four months, it’s not an unrealistic second scenario.
So, the point is this: I think George has a realistic claim to 7-8 MOI… and this is not ‘making stuff up’.
Regarding anonymity: I have been using Bookrat as my nom-de-net for ~13 years. If anyone REALLY wanted to know who I am, there are associations between my ‘real’ name and this one all over Google… go look for them. But honestly, if I posted as John Smith, or James Thudwhumper, or Joshua Wellesley… why on earth would that add any more weight to anything I have to say? Give merit to my words based on the words themselves, not the name attached to them.
Of course, if people did that, then Gormley would be out of a job…
April 27th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Guy in regina said:
“There’s a reason we vote by secret ballot, for example.”
Exactly. Nowadays, union votes are still very pressurized, normal voting perhaps to a lesser degree…the fact is that now, once someone on the offensive like Gormley gets ahold of someone’s name, it’s a free for all to label that person a ‘crazy person’ and cause that person to fight against it showing that ‘hey they must be crazy becuase I believe people like gormley to be honest’….whether they are or are not who knows.
It’s like just calling the last person picked on a team the loser, pretty easy when it’s not you isn’t it?
April 27th, 2009 at 10:38 am
I’m like Bookrat: I’ve been “jrochest” online for years and years, and I don’t think of it as a vector for anonymity. It’s a handle. I’ve been fairly upfront about my job (I’m a prof at U of S), why I’m in Saskabush (I got this great job…), and all the rest of it.
On the net, all postings are anonymous: there’s nothing to stop someone from posting piffle under my actual legal name: just because a poster claims an identity doesn’t mean they really are that person.
I think Bookrat’s argument for 7 months of inventory is a sound one: averaging sales makes sense.
In light of the current Street turmoil, my capchta is amusing: “Sting Corporation”
April 27th, 2009 at 10:38 am
Callum,
Isnt the financial crisis and real estate bubble directly related? Sooo, talking stock market and investor (there are investors outside of real estate) fragility also related to what is happening?
I feel like the same things keep getting repeated over and over, but, only time will unfold what will happen.
IMO the calm before the storm is right now. Next year will be a good time to pick up some bargains. Saskatoon will end up with an average price around 250. So, once we see that average again, it would be a good time to buy. I am not a bear, its just what I think is a reasonable price to be at for the Saskatoon market.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:39 am
Bookrat,
Hey, I’m just saying that this particular measure is not normally based on speculation, but on more recent historical data. Your calculation also fails to consider that a certain percentage of listings will, and should expire without a sale, and that some percentage of these sellers will ultimately decide not to sell their property.
Anonymity: Personally, I think that anonymity can provide a bit of a safe zone for people to express what’s really on their minds. A 28 year old couple earning $60,000 a year, raising two kids in an apartment might be reluctant to share their experience for fear of appearing to be “whiners.” I think that many of the comments here accurately reflect how young people are feeling right now. If your rent has gone from $650 to $1200 over the past two years, life isn’t getting easier for you.
No doubt, some people take advantage of anonymity to put radical ideas forward. On the internet they’re known as “trolls” and they don’t even believe what they’re saying. They just find pleasure in getting people riled up. I like to think that intelligent people can recognize these kinds of comments.
I don’t think that people who are going through tough changes are whiners. I certainly don’t think it’s idiotic to be asking serious questions about the economic issues that we’re all facing. I seriously doubt that John Gormley thinks so either.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:39 am
“I think Bookrat’s argument for 7 months of inventory is a sound one: averaging sales makes sense.”
Okay, well, we’ll go with that then.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:40 am
I think Norm makes a good point that not all listings will, or should, result in a sale. Norm, what percentage of no-sells do you think would be reasonable? With that info, perhaps Bookrat can re-calculate.
Also, well said about the anonimity issue (it protects against personal reprisal; but can be abused). Although, I think you give Gormley too much credit
April 27th, 2009 at 10:40 am
hmmm, well…. I guess averaging sales does take into account no-sells…. er…. does it?
April 27th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Housing market could soften more but not crash: CIBC
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080930.whousing0930/BNStory/Business/home
April 27th, 2009 at 10:42 am
guy_in_regina,
I would think that it would be much simpler to just look back to see how long it has taken us to absorb 1700 listings. 5 months. Easy. I’ll even chuck you a free month as a sign of good will.
2007 – 24%
2006 – 26%
2005 – 34%
2004 – 36%
2003 – 35%
I would say that 35% range is a healthy number of expireds. While you guys are doing that I will advise the real estate business that we are creating a new formula to assess months of inventory.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Hey wasn’t CIBC one of the canadian banks that had a lot of the ‘bad loans?’…..
April 27th, 2009 at 10:43 am
A good read in Macleans.
It could happen here
Inside Canada’s brewing real estate storm.
http://www.macleans.ca/business/markets/article.jsp?content=20080924_24660_24660&page=1
April 27th, 2009 at 10:43 am
guy_in regina,
I suppose it’s also worth acknowledging that the previous 5 months are those which typically boast heftier numbers of sales.
Jesse,
Indeed.
George,
Where the heck do you find the time?
April 27th, 2009 at 10:44 am
Jesse G.,
it is only 10.7 billion dollars that they have written down or that are in distress.
Nothing to see here, moving along
http://bankimplode.com/blog/category/writedowns-and-distress/
April 27th, 2009 at 10:45 am
Norm,
I have a few websites bookmarked that give me all the info I need.
just don’t tell my boss
April 27th, 2009 at 10:46 am
you can tell the days I am on the road, cause I don’t have access to the internet and I don’t get a chance to post my crap
April 27th, 2009 at 10:46 am
The article on the CIBC report makes an interesting point about declines in certain US markets. People often speak about the incredible housing crash in the US as if it is inflicting every market with double digit losses. Many cities in the US have had fairly stable prices for the past year, and some have seen recent rises. The huge corrections in the sunbelt – Miami, Phoenix, Las Vegas – for example, all in the range of 30 percent in the past year, skew the overall numbers quite a bit. Those are cities that experienced massive speculative growth and now have entire suburbs that need to be re-populated. I think the past few Case-Shiller reports, the index that tracks prices in 20 major US cities, revealed that 7 to 9 of these 20 cities have been stable, or have seen gains, in recent months. If you live in Boston, Denver, or Dallas for example, your prices are down only 3-5 percent year over year and have actually risen in the past few months. So it’s really a city by city thing too. Likely something similar will happen with our nationwide corrections. Just something to keep in mind when we look at the ‘crash’ there leading to the ‘crash’ here. Probably safest to be where the jobs are I’m guessing.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:47 am
George,
Well, you’re doing a helluva job. I almost feel like I should be paying you. I have also noticed that you bring us news that includes arguments for both sides of the up or down debate. I appreciate that.
FYI, September closes with a total of 246 units after a day which brought 21 firm sales. You were closer than I thought you’d be.
Mark,
Good points. Kind of drives home just how bad it is in those hard hit areas when average prices nationwide can show those kinds of drops.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:47 am
Have any of you seen this one, yet?
Read the posts. Talk about Saskawhiners! And most of them don’t even live here!
http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20080930/Ontario_Saskatchewan_080930/20080930?hub=TorontoHome
April 27th, 2009 at 10:47 am
Cyn_d
actually that was the article where I looked to find those office jobs I was talking about.
Jessie,
You’re absolutely right. I also went to school because I prefer an office job. I guess things have changed a bit in Sask now. My friends that are there now tell me they all stay in their comfy govt or crown corp jobs cause there isn’t much really to move around to. You really don’t have much choice unless you hold a professional designation. I suppose that’s my own fault that I don’t have one but for the lazy like me I can move around at will here and get the salary to service the average house here. I do intend to move back there and I believe at some point the housing prices will fall in line with the incomes there…just might be waiting for a while.
Actually it sounds like some people on this website have pretty slack jobs. They definitely have the time hehe. I want one of those!
April 27th, 2009 at 10:50 am
Data’s two months’ old, but a bit of fresh air nonetheless:
Canadian GDP: Expect the Unexpected
http://tinyurl.com/3jbsee
-Gross Domestic output rose 0.7% in July, the most since 2004, and much higher than expected as oil output recovered from maintenance work and manufacturing grew 1.3% – wholesaling, manufacturing and energy output accounted for 90% of growth – with construction flat.
-Output was flat from January – June and grew only 0.7% in the year to June 2008
-BMO: Thanks to this start, the economy should manage an annualized gain of more than 1% even assuming declines in the next two months. This bounce shows that the economy had more momentum heading into the recent financial hurricane. However, with consumers and business confidence likely taking a heavy hit from recent events, much weaker activity appears in store for Q4.
Do you approve, Callum?
April 27th, 2009 at 10:50 am
Crikey, you’re so annoying
Clearly, the subject matter of your post is not confined to real estate within Saskatoon city limits. Moreover, it appears to encourage pondering
April 27th, 2009 at 10:51 am
Vinny,
Yeah, well I just know that in my field, there isn’t a LOT of area to move around in. There really aren’t. I mean more than about 5 or so firms that are out there that have had the Help wanted Immediately or Now Hiring (and have been since 1999)…I’ve interviewed a few places, only to be EXTREMELY lowballed because “we only pay our other (keeping position out of this to protect my butt) this much”. I’m talking $17 an hour here folks… What will $17 an hour get you in this city for housing?
To which I answered “yes and that’s why you haven’t found anyone to work for your company….”
At least in my field there isn’t a whole lot of room to work around in. One can be self employed, but then to do that you’d have to take a big business loan out and well gotta have money coming in to get money right…
I suppose a lot of people that care to share their stories have similar experiences, and i’m sure some have great stories on the other side of the coin too. Just don’t believe the hype when someone offers you the ol ‘eveyrones making a killin out here’…
Another example… lady i work with commented on how great eveyrone’s doing in this province, and I inquired as to what she meant. She told me of how trades are being paid TONS! I asked specifically what examples…she gave me one example and quoted some HUUUGE wage..I asked the next question (since she’s in her 40’s and I assume her friend would be too)…are they management? Turns out yes. Does that count? Sure, for people that can get those positions sure. For me? Not a sniff.
Crown corps or City jobs, or University jobs are great places to be. Environments are usually quite friendly (from my own experience) and despite the ’stigma’ that they never work at those places, we work our butts off. (doesn’t mean we can’t still take coffee breaks).
I know what you mean though about not having a professional designation too…I weighed that choice myself and for me to go for a full fledged degree, would put me in debt until I’m well over 40 something and i’m not willing to still be paying for school when i’m over 40 personally.
Good luck in your hunt!
April 27th, 2009 at 10:51 am
Vinny,
Yeah, well I just know that in my field, there isn’t a LOT of area to move around in. There really aren’t. I mean more than about 5 or so firms that are out there that have had the Help wanted Immediately or Now Hiring (and have been since 1999)…I’ve interviewed a few places, only to be EXTREMELY lowballed because “we only pay our other (keeping position out of this to protect my butt) this much”. I’m talking $17 an hour here folks… What will $17 an hour get you in this city for housing?
To which I answered “yes and that’s why you haven’t found anyone to work for your company….”
At least in my field there isn’t a whole lot of room to work around in. One can be self employed, but then to do that you’d have to take a big business loan out and well gotta have money coming in to get money right…
I suppose a lot of people that care to share their stories have similar experiences, and i’m sure some have great stories on the other side of the coin too. Just don’t believe the hype when someone offers you the ol ‘eveyrones making a killin out here’…
Another example… lady i work with commented on how great eveyrone’s doing in this province, and I inquired as to what she meant. She told me of how trades are being paid TONS! I asked specifically what examples…she gave me one example and quoted some HUUUGE wage..I asked the next question (since she’s in her 40’s and I assume her friend would be too)…are they management? Turns out yes. Does that count? Sure, for people that can get those positions sure. For me? Not a sniff.
Crown corps or City jobs, or University jobs are great places to be. Environments are usually quite friendly (from my own experience) and despite the ’stigma’ that they never work at those places, we work our butts off. (doesn’t mean we can’t still take coffee breaks).
I know what you mean though about not having a professional designation too…I weighed that choice myself and for me to go for a full fledged degree, would put me in debt until I’m well over 40 something and i’m not willing to still be paying for school when i’m over 40 personally.
Good luck in your hunt!
April 27th, 2009 at 10:51 am
OOOo big panic time here in my building. Offering $5000 cash back if you buy one of thier ‘wonderful’ units. (Reads small print, based on 40 year mortgage)
I wonder how many more of these will be put up before the Oct 15th deadline…
April 27th, 2009 at 10:53 am
Canada may face housing bust: Shiller
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=853094
“Mr. Shiller, co-founder of the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index, said psychology is the primary driver of bubbles and it appears that Canada has been caught up with home buying fever just as the United States and other countries around the world.”
April 27th, 2009 at 10:53 am
This is a map of the housing bubble in the states.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:USA_home_appreciation_1998_2006.svg
The places that experienced the biggest growth in the shortest time are experiencing the biggest pullback in the States.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Norm,
I’ll take %10
My gut says it is 50/50 that the US financials collapses in the next few months. So far everything has been about subprime, bank failures, frozen credit. Mainstream media has not said much about derivatives yet. They are in the trillions, if they collapse, well… Warren Buffet called them “financial weapons of mass destruction”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/34606-buffett-on-derivatives-a-fool-s-game
We know the story if it does collapse.
If the bailout does work, other things are done and there is no collapse, the States will still be in a severe recession for quite some time and this will affect the whole world. Even though our exports are %60 to the States, China and India will be affected by the States downturn which in turn,will affect us with our other exports.
With credit contraction and a possible global recession, having a labor shortage and resources of what the world needs puts Saskatchewan in an admirable position. I think the worst we may see is that we do not have a labor shortage and some big price drops in commodities.
April 27th, 2009 at 10:55 am
“I wonder how Saskatchewan would fair if the country did slip into recession? Would that cause more people to give us a serious look?”
Great questions, and something I think we need to spend more time addressing at a political level. Automotive and manufacturing jobs are being hit hard, and if/when the US economy contracts significantly this is likely to get worse. A whole lot of people from central Canada may be looking for work, and if we have quality jobs to offer (and the infrastructure to deal with them), they will come.
Ford, Honda U.S. Sales Plummet as Credit Tightens
http://tinyurl.com/4×3c6w
U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Contracts Most Since 2001 Recession
http://tinyurl.com/4zk4qh
It’s impossible to say what’s going to happen economically, but I think Sask is looking pretty good right now. Comparitively speaking.
captcha= shock exception
Good omen?
April 27th, 2009 at 10:55 am
Another blog entry by Gail Vaz-Oxlade.
Not necessarily anything new, but a good read none-the-less.
http://www.gailvazoxlade.com/blog/archives/date/2008/10
April 27th, 2009 at 10:56 am
To Jesse and Vinny;
You have my sympathy. It truly sucks to have worked so hard at school because everyone told you ‘You need an education’ only to find out that’s what everyone else was told. Some days I wonder why I left the farm.
Good gravy man! If you’re only getting paid $17/hr no wonder you’re a bear! Especially when my lazy relatives with no high school are making $11/hr. That’ll make anybody jaded.
Speaking as a person with a professional designation, it ain’t all it’s cracked up to be. I make about ten grand a year more than my husband who just has a bachelor of science, which of course gets me taxed all to heck and I’m the one with the bigger student loan to pay off. It gives a little more job security, but I had always hoped to spend more time with my kids than be the bread winner. My husband brags about having a ’sugar mama’… then I glare at him and he shuts up.
We have friends who were priced out of the market last year and for their sake and all hard working young parents I hope the average housing price drops about thirty grand. (No more than that please or I loose money on my house:) ) Its one thing when you’re single and cursing you’re landlord, its another when you’re scared to let the landlord in because you’re toddler peed on the carpet. Been there, done that, wasn’t cool.
It’s looking better though. 6 months ago there was nothing but condemned (or should be) houses listed for less than 150K. Now you see the odd good little two bedroom house in the iffy areas of town. By next spring maybe there will be some more options.
By the by, has anyone estimated the ‘echo’ generations effect on the housing market? There are quite a few of us coming of age and looking for our first houses. Could that be why anything decent under $200K is snatched up pretty quick? My neighbours house sold in less than a week about a month ago. They had it listed for $220K, I imagine they took a little less than that, but I doubt that it went for less than $210K. Is there any way to find out what if actually sold for? No speculators bought that one… nice young couple with kids. It seems a bit steep to me for that house, but is that the top end of what first time buyers can pay? We know that houses aren’t exactly moving like they should be, but what can you’re average first time buyer pay? (Can, not should) My guess would be around $150K, so how are houses moving at all if there aren’t at least a few houses in that price range?
April 27th, 2009 at 10:59 am
George,
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2008/09/24/buffett-swarms-in.aspx
Do billionaires always buy in when chicken littles think the world is ending? I would have to say yes….thats why they are billionaires and whiners are poor. Did I buy my house when everyone told me to rent why yes I did.
Callum,
Im on Motley Fool all the time my username is the same here Armoth check me out.
Crikey,
I know some people say not to look at your house as in investment cause its not but yet you and several bears portray it as such. Tell me what is the cost of waiting to buy a home theoretically speaking. Some have waited for months and some years and now have been gouged from renting or had to move. No one ever brought up this point thus far and hopefully this post doesn’t get deleted like my other ones. Maybe if i whine more they will let my fricken posts through.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Jesse G.,
Glad to hear those condos aren’t selling! I hope they get what they deserve. (nothing)
Is the Oct. 15 deadline for 40/0 mortgages? Exciting! It’s going to be a loonnng winter for real estate.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Laura,
Thanks, gladly no I left the place that paid me $16.80 an hour, though there are places (and I won’t mention the names) that I interviewed at that would only pay their employees that. They did have the incentive that you can work all the ‘paid overtime’ you wish though. Ie: We’ll take on TONS of projects, make a ton of money and you’ll squeek by while your life is beign stuck to the desk working for us.
There is reason I’m a bear for sure, part experience, part gut, part sympathy and part compassion for others in situations similar or worse.
I make $21.55 an hour where I’m at which is currently the highest for what I do that I’ve found in the province thus far in almost 10 years.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:02 am
Armouth,
Me and several others have brought up the subject that it is not a good idea to view personal real estate as a major type of investment. It’s more of a savings, and historically mutual bonds/stocks get better value. I had posted an article regarding this a while back.
You have already brought up a bizillion times about the “cost of waiting” and right now the cost of NOT waiting will be a mistake for many.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Armoth,
“Maybe if i whine more they will let my fricken posts through.”
Actually, if you can simply refrain from name calling and other sorts of rude and obnoxious behavior your comments will all get through.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Armoth,
if I could get the gauranteed return of 10% of the preferred stock like Buffet, I would take out a home equity loan at 4.75% and sink all my money in. If GS goes *** up in the pond, I am sure Buffet will get his money back. This would be behind the scenes stuff the public does not know about.
Having people like Buffet put money into the stocks is not unlike in the late 20’s when big names entered the market to boost confidence.
I will say one thing about you Armoth. Many people have taken home equity loans out in Saskatoon and most use it for trips, tvs, cars and consumer junk. This is one of the reasons why retail spending is up 10% from last year. House values have gone up so people feel richer, but in reality they are not.
You took it and with big balls invested and have bettered your financial picture. I couldn’t do that but I commend you for that.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:04 am
George,
Thx man all I know is if the world doesnt end the companies which are good will keep growing and making money for those who believe.
Norm,
If those comments were out of line I guess thats your right but just make sure you keep it fair. Not many bulls around anymore cause almost all of them left =’(
Heather D,
Alright…….but I dont remember posting any such question before but who knows I am human and forgetful.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:05 am
Armoth,
If you have a moment could you answer my earlier post.
Thanks
April 27th, 2009 at 11:07 am
Jesse,
I totally understand. 5 years ago I was making about $15/hour (30k/year). Then I moved to Vancouver for 37k/year. It wasn’t for the money as I knew it cost more to live there but more the opportunity.
Now I’m in Calgary and have easily doubled that but part of that being I actually have the qualfications and have put in my time too (although still no designation). The funny observation I have made is how many kids straight out of university demand 60k/year (with a psychology degree – nothing against those). Even with all the money here the city is nothing special and quite honestly i prefer Saskatchewan for the short commutes and all the other reasons that many other sask people have mentioned. I always liked Saskatoon more but I would choose Regina ultimately because my friends I grew up are all there. Now if the darn housing market would hurry up and fix itself I might go back. The other problem would be trying to sell my house here and right now that could be pretty challenging.
Armoth,
I like some of the funds you have selected. i am actually a pure ETF investor right now. My LOC wasn’t set up on Monday otherwise I would have loaded up on XIU as well as QQQQ and maybe even IYJ. I really have my eye on a few more international (EWJ, EWZ) ones but those seem a bit scary right now.
I also agree with buying in a market right now. You might take a small temporary hit but over the long run you will be WAY ahead…provided you are not buying penny stocks.
Back during the Bre-x era (Since you are 25 you should remember that one) I bought $2000 of precious metals funds after Gold had tanked. Unfortunately it wasn’t done tanking and my $2000 turned into $1000. It took 4-5 years for me just to break even. But roughly two years after that the $2000 became $12000. if you can stomach the volatility the gains will be there. Btw, that was my ONLY good investment. i also have made very many bad ones.
However, I do have to commend you as well. With a modest income AND THREE kids and a 230k mortgage you are sure investing agressively. I guess investing agressively is what gets people ahead.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Armoth,
Thanks for the reply!!
April 27th, 2009 at 11:10 am
Vinny,
“I guess investing agressively is what gets people ahead”.
It’s what “can” get you ahead if you’re stock savvy, or just plain lucky, or both… otherwise you can end up losing your shirt! I was going to say another Black Monday (‘87) may be around the corner… but according to Wikipedia a few dates have already been named this year alone:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday
Either they’re overembelishing or hysteria just isn’t what it used to be.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:10 am
Hey Norm, how many of the 1,756 listings are vacant? I find this number interesting.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Carl,
Total active residential listings have fallen to 1,660 this week. 627 of those properties show as vacant.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:13 am
45k to 66k haircut in Calgary in one year. Ouch! They still have one the top economies in Canada.
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=825f956c-2742-4de3-8972-da0b07708ecc
April 27th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Thanks for that, George.
Wow, that’s more than a large majority of people would make in a year.
I like the realtor’s quote:
“The sellers are going through pain right now, but for the last couple of years the buyers were going through pain. And so everybody has their turn at the well . . . the one thing that’s different about this market is the whole world is in chaos. You can’t count on anything.”
April 27th, 2009 at 11:13 am
So what do you think of the new mls site? I’m disappointed… I was hoping to be able to search by sqft and the age of the property. I like the map-based search, though.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:14 am
Heather,
I kind of like it but it would be much better if the map was up to date. Lakewood, Stonebridge, Willowgrove and Hampton Village don’t exist on it.
I agree that size and age would be a good addition.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:14 am
Toronto stock market closes down more than 800 points on plunging commodity stocks
http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investing/news/businessnews/article.aspx?cp-documentid=10856575
Potash corp went all the way down to 101, down from a high of 246. Anybody else getting hammered tonight?
Why can’t my mortgage balance go down like my stocks after a day like today?
April 27th, 2009 at 11:22 am
http://albertabubble.blogspot.com/2008/10/people-are-mad-as-hell.html
Click on the first video, the guy is gonna have a stroke talking about the bailout.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:22 am
George said:
Anybody else getting hammered tonight?
Just checked 2 of my mutual funds – down 37 % and 38% ytd – Panic ? Not me – AAPL is at a 52 week low – new products to be released in 2 weeks – time to load up. When others panic – I buy. You can still make $$$ in these troubled times.
MVA
April 27th, 2009 at 11:24 am
MVATRAIL:
Just my two cents – but I wouldn’t be loading up on AAPL. I see them only having lower to go. Beyond the whole cannibalism of their iphone, the end of the product cycle of their ipod, and the continuing questionable health of Mr. Jobs – they’re going to be hit the hardest in an economic downturn. The slew of downgrades they got at the beginning of the week echoed this. When times are tight are parents going to be buying their kids a $500 laptop or a $2,000 laptop for school? Look at a five year graph – it’s been a bubblicious stock.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:27 am
Warren,
What do you like?
I’m thinking Potash Corp and Research in Motion.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:27 am
Norm,
So… are you trolling on your own blog now?
Darn… where is that sarcasm detector…
April 27th, 2009 at 11:27 am
I just re-read the last post and realized if you weren’t being sarcastic, what I said could be fairly offensive. I definitely did not intend that.
I’ll just be quiet now… (slink, slink, slink)
April 27th, 2009 at 11:28 am
Crikey,
Sorry for leaving you hanging. Watching debates this evening.
I was quite serious but I’m not easily offended. I suppose I should be asking that question elsewhere. I am actually looking to make some changes.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:28 am
Norm, you like Potash Corp? I know buy low sell high, seriously though Potash Corp was a big reason all those extinct bulls were saying Saskatoon was sustainable a few months ago, hype?
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/story/2008/10/02/markets-drop.html
Also, shows Merrill Lynch still has some pull, those guys who say Saskatoon has Canada’s most over priced housing are still listened to by a lot of people!
April 27th, 2009 at 11:28 am
Dirk,
Truth is, I haven’t got the foggiest idea what I’m doing, but I am aware of that news and the fact that PCS took a huge hit yesterday. I’m wondering though if a 26% drop is justified.
I’m hoping that I can’t lose my money any faster than the guy who is currently managing it.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Oil could fall to US$50 if global recession hits: Merrill
http://www.financialpost.com/news/story.html?id=856108
I don’t know too much about stocks, but I would say stay away from automakers, oil and gas, banks, and commodities ( huge bubble here). Only 2 years ago potash corp was trading at 30/share. Since then it has been in bubble territory.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Can someone explain to me how Saskatchewan is better equipped to weather the coming economic storm when our economy is based largely on these risky commodities? Am I missing something? Or ignoring what has happened with the US housing market, do commodities always go up and up and up in value like real estate prices? despite dwindling global demand?
April 27th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Thanks for the heads up Warren – in at $96 – out at
$ 103 – 4k to the good – not bad for a mornings work – the health thing was a hoak – Steve did not have a heart attack – Just my 4 k, er, 2 cents.
MVA
Warren said:
MVATRAIL
Just my two cents – but I wouldn’t be loading up on AAPL. I see them only having lower to go. Beyond the whole cannibalism of their iphone, the end of the product cycle of their ipod, and the continuing questionable health of Mr. Jobs – they’re going to be hit the hardest in an economic downturn. The slew of downgrades they got at the beginning of the week echoed this. When times are tight are parents going to be buying their kids a $500 laptop or a $2,000 laptop for school? Look at a five year graph – it’s been a bubblicious stock.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:32 am
I’m about to accept a job in Saskatoon and my family income will be well over 130K. However, I don’t see myself buying a house in Saskatoon at this time. I would get around 250K for my house in Winnipeg and I would have to pay 450-500 to get a comparable place in Saskatoon (with the largely the same household income). I’m not sure what the average income is in Saskatoon but I can’t imagine that most people there can afford to pay 300K+ for small (and often cheaply built) houses that will need renovations and repairs. I also can’t imagine that many others think the same way. The prices will come especially in the economic slowdown that will likely occur over the next year or so. I will probably accept the job but rent until the prices go down.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Jay,
Keep us up to date on your view of Saskatoon when you get here and have gotten a chance to settle in renting and into your job.
All the best!
April 27th, 2009 at 11:34 am
MVATRAIL,
You just made 4k off a 7.29% gain? 96 -103. So you bought 54k worth of apple just yesterday? That’s one hell of a large transation!!!
April 27th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Vinny – yes it was – someone started a rumor yesterday that Steve J had a heart attack – which I knew was false – proved false today in a release -
ESLR is another under-priced stock – if the US approves the 20 % tax credit bill, this one will move even more. Very cheap solar stock…Hmmmmmm solar you say, how much oil does it need to operate ?
I realize people will buy 500.00 laptops before 2k laptops, but sometimes you have to dig deeper for the right info.
DISCLAIMER: I own ESLR allready – Not pumping the stock – just pointing it. Do your own research.
MVA
April 27th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Jason,
Commodity markets are notoriously volatile. Historically speaking, commodity booms have almost always went ‘bust’ to some extent.
A quick google search of “commodity boom bust cycles” should get your research started.
Many argue that it’s different this time because of sheer population pressure and growth in India and China. However, this analysis seems to assume a linear, progressive industrialization trend in these countries, something that, IMO, is far from guaranteed.
Here’s a few ‘boom forever’ articles.
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/why-the-commodities-boom-is-different-this-time.aspx
http://www.financialsense.com/captain/log.html
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/14/business/commod.php
April 27th, 2009 at 11:38 am
can someone explain to me how to do a community search on the new mls web site? I used to be able to do this.
thanks in advance.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:38 am
Carl:
http://www.srar.ca/stoonmap.php
Area search ???
April 27th, 2009 at 11:39 am
Interesting that inventory is down now, but sales aren’t up. Think the speculators are trying to wait out the bogged down market? Serves them right. Little is likely to change next year. Just shows how many on the market are just flippers and speculators. Over 600 vacant places? That solves the housing shortage we always hear about for rental right there!
Tough to feel too bad for people trying to flip houses while so many can’t afford them. Or being greedy instead of selling for a modest profit now, when would have been huge a few months ago, and now risk losing everything.
The U of S is planning a big new dorm, and Saskatoon housing is planning a big new housing tower downtown. What’s that going to do to the rental market? Suddenly all the land lords are going to wish they’d sold now and the specuflippers won’t have high rent to fall back on.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:42 am
MVATRAIL:
Congrats – as Vinny pointed out, you managed to buy over $50,000 of AAPL at pretty much the absolute split second lows of the session and then immediately sell for a quick profit.
Meanwhile, the stock closed down (again) 3% on the day.
My two cents wasn’t meant for day flippers – but for more of a buy and hold (or in Apple’s case, don’t buy and don’t hold) strategy. The earnings expectations for the company are unattainable high, it’s iconic CEO (probably tied with Buffett as the most branded CEO out there right now, now that Gates has stepped down) is a cancer survivor, and it’s computer products only fly in times of high disposable income.
Norm, I’ve been thinking about your question, but haven’t had time to give an adequate response (my gut feeling is to say “cash”, for what I like, but I’ll think about it some more – I too was caught up in the debates last night).
April 27th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Thanks MVATRAIL,
as Norm mentioned this map is missing neighborhoods.
on the main screen of the old mls web site their was search for communities which included more neighborhoods, is this still available?
April 27th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Carl,
I hadn’t noticed that mls.ca is now forwarding to realtor.ca. I see no “community search” function on this site at all. I have heard that Microsoft will be updating their Virtual Earth maps for Saskatoon this fall. Hopefully that issue will be fixed soon.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Bailout is law!
http://tinyurl.com/4ctsc4
April 27th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Thanks Norm,
I wish that I could figure this out for myself, but …. Is there anyway to search houses forsale in willowgrove?