Having just celebrated my sixteenth Christmas holiday season as a Realtor, I’ve learned over the years that you just can’t expect much of this particular week. Close your local MLS for three of the five regular business days and pretty much expect sales and listings to fall off of the map. This year was no different.
Just 15 new Saskatoon real estate listings hit the board this week including 13 single-family homes and 2 condominiums. Total active residential listings settled at 1,292 properties, down 36 units from the previous week, among them, 782 houses and 429 condos.
Sales were equally weak with a total of 15 homes firming up a final sale including 11 houses and 4 condominiums.
Home sales and new listings met at their lowest point this year on our “Units Sold vs. Units Listed” graph.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
Price results for the Saskatoon homes that did sell proved to be a little more interesting, but again, with only 15 units in the review there isn’t much of a conclusion that can be drawn from the numbers. Given that the median price for the week was just $195,000 and the highest sale recorded was $356,900 it’s not much of a surprise that the average sale price plummeted to just $214,500, the lowest weekly average for the 2008 calendar year. I actually had to re-format the vertical axis on the “Averages” graph to make this week’s review work. The six-week average managed to drop nearly $8,500, falling from $279,240 last week to $270,782 this week and reaching its lowest level since the week of March 10-14 when it was $265,040. The four-week median selling price also took a pretty good dive dropping to $245,000, down a full $10,000 from the week before when it closed at $255,000 and reaching levels not seen since early this year. In fact, only two other weeks in 2008 produced a lower four-week median.
Now, it seems to me that most of the time that we see a spike, or a large decline in the weekly average, prices bounce in the opposite direction the following week. I fully expect that will happen next week but, with another short week ahead of us, it’s quite conceivable that next week could bring similar results. If it does, the four-week median would almost certainly fall again, perhaps back to 2007 territory.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
The average underbid fell fairly substantially this past week from $15,455 to just $12,525. However, when calculating the average underbid as a percentage of the average asking price it’s pretty much bang on with the week before. The big number discounts ($20K plus) shrunk significantly from nearly 20% last week to 7% this week. The $15,001-$20,000 underbid made a pretty big comeback accounting for 27% of all recorded sales. Action in the $10,001 to $15,000, and the $5,001 to $10,000 categories took a smaller percentage of sales while the up to $5,000 range grew from 22% of sales last week to 33% this week.
I hope that you’re all having a pleasant and relaxing break over the holidays. Best wishes for a safe and happy New Year celebration followed by an outstanding 2009 for you and yours. Thanks again for reading and contributing.
See a Google map displaying the boundaries of Saskatoon real estate “areas” here
Data collection and calculation for our statistical reports
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
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{ 83 comments… read them below or add one }
“the median price for the week was just $195,000″
Wow real estate crash in Saskatoon!
Just kidding, but seriously, I remember the media jumping on every irrelevent positive head line to the same extent in hyping the boom in the first place, and ignored comparable irrelevent negative headlines.
Obviously these few sales don’t mean much, but interesting the 4 week median and 6 week means still fit a general down ward trend.
Prices will likely rebound from these below normal prices (ie regression to the mean) but I think the general down ward 4/6 week trends will continue, even if weekly average recovers to somewhere above last week, but below the week prior.
Funnny, any one who predicted a $200,000 average at year end would be right!
I jumped on the $240,000 (down about 20% from peak) and that’s not too far off the 4 week median…
the trend is on the way down in that graph
“Just kidding, but seriously”
Certainly easy to explain away a 15 sale week but there’s little doubt that the trend is down. It looks to me like the median sale price, and the average sale price for December will be down substantially over November. Condo and house activity as a share of total sales looks almost the same between the two months. Will be interesting to dissect those two categories after month end to see what really happened.
“Funny, any one who predicted a $200,000 average at year end would be right!”
Well, not really, but it might be fun to watch us all spin our “predictions.” If only someone will go dig them up. I can’t remember where the heck they are, but I do believe that we were talking average (entire residential category) for the month of December. If I recall correctly, I guessed it would be around $265K. Month to date, it’s at $264,981.
I may have said, “265-270,” or maybe it was “265-275?” I think I’ll go with my best recollection and claim to have nailed it by less than 20 bucks. 
A lot could change between now and then end of the month. Still 15% of the business days to go.
Happy New Year Nick.
I remember my prediction: I said that December’s 2008 avg. price would be the same as the Dec 2007 avg price — that we would give up all gains earned from the beginning of the year to the peak. I too will be curious to see the final numbers, to know how far off I was and in which direction.
Answering a couple of questions from last week to which I forgot to reply:
“Aug – Dec: How long did you have to crunch numbers to come up with the worst possible scenario?
” – Honestly, I didn’t. I remembered that August sales were bad, and knew that they had pretty much mirrored 2004 since then, so I just pulled the numbers out of my own spreadsheet. You know I have my own tracking data…
“We only need 12 more units to make it the ’second best December on record.’
” – Yup, much to my surprise. Looks like the prices will be significantly down, though… and it still won’t save the August to December timeframe. 
“I also wish I had an edit function but I don’t know how to build one.
” – You know how to get hold of me. I program for a living, and have done some web work. (I assume that this is turnkey software; it doesn’t have such an option you can enable anywhere?) Anyway, if it’s too much for me personally, I know several very good PHP/CGI/Web people who can probably give you a hand with that… or the very least, add a ‘preview’ function.
Merry Christmas. I hope everyone everyone has had a wonderful few days, celeprating in the true spirit of family and joy and thankfulness.
Maybe not a Black Diamond, but those graphs do look like they’ve got a gentle Green Circle down slope!
Bookrat,
“I remember my prediction: I said that December’s 2008 avg. price would be the same as the Dec 2007 avg price”
Looks like you’ll be fairly close then.
“I assume that this is turnkey software; it doesn’t have such an option you can enable anywhere?”
Yes, it is “Community Server” software offered through Point2 with their “premium” package. No, I’ve been through all of the options in the back end and there isn’t an edit or a preview function which can be enabled. There is a “CSS Overrides” window which provides an opportunity for some customization. I have so far managed to change my header, eliminate a fairly stupid “navigation panel” which resided on one of the side columns, and eliminate the search function which never worked properly from the beginning. It may be possible that some code could be written and placed there to add that function. I’m not sure.
I have considered changing to Wordpress, which appears to be a much more robust and feature rich product. One of the big benefits of sticking with Point2’s product of choice is that it runs on the same domain name as my other website, so I think it helps with SEO. Of course, the other concern is migrating around 300 posts and nearly 10,000 comments. Maybe it’s time that I gave that some serious consideration.
Do let me know if you have any thoughts, perhaps by email.
Happy New Year Bookrat!
Home buyer and Crazy Canuck,
“the trend is on the way down in that graph’
That’s for sure. Most interesting to me is the rather sudden and significant change in the “four-week median.” It really stuck pretty close to that $270K line for 3 months time and then took a sudden dive through December.
i wonder if the Potash Corp, Agrium, Cameco lay offs have some Saskatoonites realizing the recession is hitting close to home
a lot of higher income earners with these and other companies may now be wary to buy a new home in Saskatoon at a premium far beyond what they bought their last house at
and with oil prices down, some of the sparkle seems to be off the idea that Saskatoon would be “immune” from all of this. apparently brad wall agrees we are not immune
and that’s not even taking into account the large available inventory, slower sales, questionable saskatoon population loss and alberta now having similar and falling house prices to add to higher wages and lower taxes
Dan,
I don’t think we have had a population loss. If you are referring to that story back from June, it is questionable. I think Stats Can has better numbers and it shows the province is up 20k + yoy, Saskatoon probably has a third of that increase. Most numbers support a pop increase. Housing starts, retail sales Even SGI has reported the biggest yoy increase vehicle registrations.
When looking at a Calgary SFH, they are 90k off from the peak of May 07, sales have fallen off of a cliff and listings are still very high. Some analysts are forecasting another 15% price dip in 2009. Oil, natural gas, construction and their spinoffs were the main players during their boom. Now this part of their economy has slowed to a crawl with many layoffs already started. A recession for Alberta is very possible in 2009.
I believe Saskatchewan is in a good position compared to other places heading into 2009. Now, I am not suggesting we are immune in Saskatchewan, I am one of the biggest bears here and if we see some growth in GDP in 2009, it will be very minimal. 2008 saw some people lose 40-60% of their net worth in real estate and the stock market. 2009 won’t be any nicer with losses in both again but weighted more towards real estate.
The next few months will be interesting and scary.
Even though we have a labor shortage and a diversified economy, cracks have started to show with demand for our resources slowing, confidence slowing eroding, housing slowdown.
But for me the big picture is what happens in the States, that is the tell sign.
More and more US retailers are facing bankruptcy, the credit card crisis, more US housing trouble, whether or not the big 3 survive after March, the US dollar bubble.
Gas at 69.9 on 20th
http://www.saskatoongasprices.com/
but
The waning of the boom
http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081228.wrfortmac1229/BNStory/Business/home
“More and more US retailers are facing bankruptcy”
Whoo, boy, are they. I was mildly stunned when I read this article from the WSJ:
Retailers Brace for Major Change: Chain Stores See a Future With Fewer Outlets, Brands — and Thinner Profits
http://tinyurl.com/748olw
You may need a subscription to view the whole article, but this was the take away quote:
“Analysts estimate that from about 10% to 26% of all retailers are in financial distress and in danger of filing for Chapter 11. AlixPartners LLP, a Michigan-based turnaround consulting firm, estimates that 25.8% of 182 large retailers it tracks are at significant risk of filing for bankruptcy or facing financial distress in 2009 or 2010. In the previous two years, the firm had estimated 4% to 7% of retailers then tracked were at a high risk for filing.”
http://tinyurl.com/8fwhae
On another note, I was able to fill up my car for $14.04 yesterday. The last time that happened was about 10 years ago, I think. Who knows what will happen to the price of oil with the escalating situation in Gaza, though.
OT, can you embed a gif in a blog post? Do have to do some weird HTML thing? Thx.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/story/2008/12/29/camp-homes.html
“With a shortage of affordable housing in Saskatoon, some people are resorting to campgrounds year-round — despite temperatures that recently have dipped well into the –20 C range.
Among them is Jake Jackson, who lives in a four-metre-long trailer at a campsite south of the city and uses a gas-station bathroom across the road.
Jackson has a job delivering pizzas, but he can’t afford an apartment in the city, he said.
The only accommodations he can afford in Saskatoon are in neighbourhoods that are overrun by drugs and crime, he said.
“I would have to live in the ‘hood. And in the ‘hood, with my drug background of abuse, it’s not a good place for me,” he said. “I have to stay away, so I stay away.”
Instead, $400 a month lets him plug his trailer into the electrified site. Through the recent cold snap, a tiny space heater has kept him cosy.
There’s also enough electricity to run a fridge and a microwave, he said.
However, others among the dozen or so campers in the area live in worse conditions, because they can’t afford anything else, he said.
For instance, one of his neighbours pays $200 more than Jackson does to live in an unheated cabin.
“You know, I even had to take his cat because the cabin is just that cold,” Jackson said. “He’s never around any more cause he’s trying to work. I even got him a job at Pizza Hut.”"
Hey, a real feel good story eh? Isn’t it great that all Saskatchewan people are benefiting from the boom? Everyone’s wages are up! 4th best growth in Canada, wasn’t it? Wow.
guy_in_regina,
What’s wrong with camping in December? Sad indeed.
Crikey,
“OT, can you embed a gif in a blog post? Do have to do some weird HTML thing? Thx.”
Can’t seem to embed images in comments. html insert image tags just show up as text. However, you could upload to a free site like http://www.pixentral.com. It’s easy to upload an image without even registering. When you do, the site generates a URL that you can refer people to.
A recession in Alberta would still leave wages higher than Saskatchewan and surplus inventory with cheap housing in Calgary is a good way to get Saskatoon residents to move for a big raise in Calgary
U.S. home prices drop 18 per cent
http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081230.wushomeprices1230/BNStory/Business/home
“The bear market continues; home prices are back to their March, 2004 levels
For anybody who has watched the 60 minutes video, the bottom is nowhere to be seen in terms of prices and time.
alberta now,
These areas and their spin offs fueled the boom in Alberta the last few years. Construction, oil, construction, natural gas and you guessed it construction.
Oil has tanked and nevermind the almost 80 billion in oil projects delayed or cancelled there are layoffs starting in the oilpatch.
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/city/story.html?id=cf721c3d-5cff-4e8a-94c4-b5582800ec90
Residential construction blew their wad in 06 and 07 and have had severe cutbacks in housing starts. It takes on average 4 workers one year to build a house. There have been at least 3( maybe more) big condo projects either delayed or cancelled in Calgary
When housing starts fall so do the jobs. The construction slowdown has been significant because it was one of the biggest parts of Alberta’s economy. Do people remember Albertans here in the spring doing work?
As for ng, I have not followed much, but drilling has slowed down and the price like everything else has come down quite a bit.
Construction will not rebound in residential or commercial anytime soon, but oil possibly could in the next few years bringing back good paying jobs.
Cheap housing in Calgary?
Not since 2003.http://www.findcalgary.ca/listings?pathway=127&pageId=19
Don’t get me wrong, though, Saskatoon still has overvalued RE.
the economic situation may have changed here (calgary) but not many mindsets have. A girl I used to work with last year graduated with a psychology degree and got a job at our company. Then she hopped to another oil company making 55k+ and feels she is underpaid. I remember the days of trying to find a job after graduating with an accounting/finance degree and not being able to find anything in my field in Regina. Maybe this upcoming recession will put some reality into people’s minds. People still feel they control the companies and try to demand high salaries. The layoffs haven’t spilled into the head offices yet but they should soon.
I just shake my head at housing anywhere though. I remember at the beginning of the housing boom here my parents refused to buy a house because they didn’t want to pay 900/mth for a mtg (on a house). Now they think 1200/mth is cheap (for a condo). I’d rather have all of us living with cheap housing than some of us with high equity and the rest of us scraping by.
I think the point we’re kind of missing is despite the drop in oil and gas, which also affects Saskatchewan, Alberta still seems to offer higher paying, better jobs, as a province is debt free, so has lower taxes and now housing in Alberta is becoming more affordable.
This doesn’t mean Alberta doesn’t have problems, but so does Saskatchewan, and it becomes harder to convince mobile young professionals to locate in Saskatoon, when they can get paid significantly more in Edmonton, Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Lethbridge, even Lloyd, all with comparable to considerably cheaper housing than Saskatoon. Sure the inventory is bigger in Edmonton, but for a mobile young person in Saskatoon, that available discount condo on Whyte – and the raise that comes with it – is in direct competition with a substantially more expensive River Landing option.
Hi Norm,
Just curious to know,if at all possible to say, how much that Ash Creek apartment with asking price of 199,900 was sold for?
When talking about the higher wages in Alberta, one thing to keep in mind is higher costs for some things there, not just housing. Daycare for example. As I understand it, many people are paying 800 to 1000 bucks for daycare spots. I spend 500 in Regina. And I have three young kids, two of whom will soon be in daycare full time. I may be saving up to 1000 dollars a month in childcare costs living where I am. Aren’t vehicle insurance costs much higher in Alberta as well? I know food and alchohol likely are as well, if you are eating out. So sure, 100 and some bucks extra in average weekly earnings in Alberta, and less tax, but higher costs for many things as well.
mark higher cost of living is largely an urban myth,
groceries are the same in Alberta if you go to super store or safeway or the same store as here, gas is cheaper, taxes are cheaper, cars are cheaper, insurance is cheaper if a safe driver and not a teenager, alcohol is cheaper in Alberta which is why we always used to pick up alcohol on the way back from trips there, just more if you want to eat out a lot
easy to save on costs by not eating out at fancy restaurants and to not need to go to fancy clubs
good for you on getting daycare in regina, i know a lot of people who couldn’t find spots in saskatoon,
or were on the university of saskatchewan wait list the minute they found they were pregnant, on hopes of having a spot by 1 year old
Mark,
As a 30 year old with a safe driving record, vehicle insurance is pretty much the same as it was in Saskatoon (my auto pay is about $6 a month more for the same coverage), booze is much cheaper, and food is about the same. Wages are signifcantly higher, the people not as snootish as the Saskatonian Donald Trump wanna be’s, and hard work seems much more appreciated here in Edmonton. As opposed to Saskatoon, this is also place where hard work translates into more money into your pocket, not just more money for your employer.
To recap: cheaper cost of living (if your a renter), higher wages, better quality of life (not having to work 10 hour days as wage increases in no way come close to covering the huge cost of living increase brought about by the specu-boom), more humble people (I can’t emphasize how nice it is to go out and not hear every Tom, Dick, and Harry selfishly boasting about how much their home value has increased over the past month), and as an added plus, cheaper booze. These are just some of the reasons I love Edmonton
Why someone would choose to stay in Saskatchewan, or Saskatoon in particular, is beyond me. Maybe its the pleasant winter weather.
I am a born and raised Saskatoonian. Lately, my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in Saskatoon hoping to move back one of these days (currently living in Calgary). What’s frightening is that real estate in Calgary is more affordable than it is in Saskatoon. Take for example a 1780sqft brand new 2 story home with double attached garage with standard features. In Calgary it sells for 398k tax included, this same house would sell for low 500’s in Saskatoon. And to top things off, the income tax is lower in Calgary, our auto and home insurance is lower (RBC Insurance) and our utilities are comparable if not lower. Overall, your income is higher in Alberta and the cost of living is less. On a comparitive basis, Saskatoon is heavily overvalued in relation to Edmonton or Calgary. I think Saskatoon housing market needs to open its eyes to the Alberta market in order to become competitive and win back it’s people.
On another note, all this nonsense about having an economy that can weather the current recessionary conditions is absolute nonsense. PCS, Agrium and Cameco have already cut production along with employees. If oil continue to remain weak this will impact all commodities as commoidity strength is pegged to oil. The reflection of oil being low is an illustration of a decrease in economic activity in the emerging economies namely China and India which are HUGE consumers of agricultural products. If they begin to cut back on fuels that will also mean a cut back in foods. As a results, if Albertas economy ends up in downward spiral you can bet that Saskatchewan will come down with it. I however have a bullish view that commodities will strengthen in 2009 and we will encounter another commodity bull run which will be the greatest of it’s kind.
To Dan and Frustrated Renter: what about utilities? the reason i ask is because i’m interested in moving to alberta. thanks in advance.
chartist no idea personally but Andrew says utilities same or cheaper in alberta than saskatchewan “our utilities are comparable if not lower”
Thanks another tourist.
Frustrated Renter, Mark
We wanted to live in Saskatoon – hopefully to start a familly, as we thought (stupidly) that our cost of living would be significantly lower so we could take a pay cut. For that, we were willing to leave BC for the frigidly cold winters in Saskatoon.
That did not pan out so well. I could not believe that bidding wars and prices were the way they went in 2007. I figured people must have had a lobotomy to just blindly think prices were going to continue that way. Obviously nobody in Saskatoon has a memory of prior bubble boom economies.
We also have familly in Saskatoon, and thought it would be nice to be near them. Well, at the time, to get into a sfh we would be well into the 300’s, if not 400 for a safe neighborhood.
At the end of the day, I felt utterly disgusted with the greed and as you say donald trumpians heralding their “intelligence” in the real estate market.
We left for BC, better pay, lower housing costs (not Vancouver), better winters.
Felt so sorry for all the people with no housing or those people kicked out by the greedy condo flippers. funny to me that saskatoon has so many of the “faith” yet the city and its habitants really did a number on the poor.
No PST in AB. PST is 5% here. If you buy a $1,000 TV, or whatever, in AB you save $50. Gas is cheaper also. Plus, no end of cheap home furnishings at IKEA!
I think It’s making sense again for some people to leave for Alberta (or elsewhere). We’d like to stay here; but my wife is having a tough time finding a job in her field. Lots of jobs for her based out of Edmonton. Quite a few scattered around Ontario, and a handful in Winnipeg. Virtually nothing here (more than summer terms).
Shizz, I’d take an increased cost of living just to be close to the mountains – I love to shred the slopes!!
I’m hopeful RE will fall in line here, and she’ll get a job in her field – but if not, we’re gonzies.
Happy new year all!!
guy in regina, the sad thing is it is worse in Saskatoon
I moved to Regina 3 months ago, to cheaper housing and higher pay
The job is doing ongoing training for me, and really the only reason I’ll stay after would be for loyalty to employer, otherwise, I know for my occupation, Alberta would pay $50,000 a year more for the SAME hours – seriously, I’ve looked
Regina is at least cheaper housing wise than Alberta, Saskatoon doesn’t even have that distinction
Jeff,
Probably not a good idea for me to publish the sale price here. I will say that it fell into the lowest underbid category.
Andrew,
The last time that a 1700-1900 square foot two-storey sold here for more than $500K was in July. There were only 8 others prior to that in the entire history of our MLS. Granted there are six active listing which meet that criteria but a pretty healthy selection of those homes are offered below $500K and quite a few under $400K.
http://www.saskmls.ca/Matrix/Public/Email.aspx?ID=140875415
Here’s nearly 1800 feet, new in 2008, double detached garage for $358K.
http://www.saskmls.ca/Matrix/Public/Email.aspx?ID=140872783
Has anyone noticed any brand new homes for rent in Regina or Saskatoon? I’ve come across a few rentals that are brand new in Regina. The same kinda stuff I seen in my home state of Florida after the bust.
Why are brand new homes available for rent? No buyers? Strange.
Norm, that house would have been at least 100,000 higher this spring when I was weighing staying in Saskatoon v. moving elsewhere.
When I was looking, an average 1,000 to 1,200 sq ft bungalow in College Park or Greystone or comparable was 300 to 350,000 – all 20 + years old, many out dated.
As much as our housing may be going down, it’s down that much more in Regina, where the link you posted maybe peaked at that much, and is 50,000 less now.
Chartist,
“No buyers?”
Definitely more sellers than buyers. I see 142 single-family homes (not all completed) showing either “New” or a “built in 2008″ tag. Total residential sales for December will be around 170 units. Only 9 of those show the same year built tag. If you own one of these properties and you aren’t prepared to get your price right, you better be looking for a renter. probably costing $2500 a month to carry and that gets tiring pretty quickly.
Well, they can at least hope for the “spring bounce”.
Nick,
“Norm, that house would have been at least 100,000 higher this spring”
I’m looking at something similar right now. Sold in March. 1792 square feet, double detached garage. $448,750.
That said, I think when we’re comparing costs of living here, versus somewhere else, a fairer approach would be to look at today’s prices instead of last spring, yes?
“As much as our housing may be going down, it’s down that much more in Regina, where the link you posted maybe peaked at that much, and is 50,000 less now.’
I don’t follow Regina very closely but here are the monthly averages for Regina.
June – 250
July – 253
August – 253
Sept – 245
Oct – 235
Nov – 230
Dec – 242
George,
“Well, they can at least hope for the “spring bounce”.”
Ah, yes! The “fevered pitch of spring.”
If it were me, I would be looking to get out of the Saskatoon real estate investment business before spring. Funny thing is, most of them could probably still get out with a profit, or at least a break even. I think the overwhelming desire to maximize the return may cost a few of these investors some bucks. It seems so completely unreasonable to expect that prices will actually be up here (or anywhere else for that matter) by spring. I think we’ll likely see similar inventory trends to last year.
Nick,
“Regina is at least cheaper housing wise than Alberta”
Yes, Regina is more sane. But we’re still paying $925 for an 860 sq.ft 2-bedroom, un-renovated apt. It will be $999 once my next rent increase kicks in (thankfully not for 6 months!). I like Regina, but I don’t think that’s a very good deal. We’d move somewhere cheaper (in the city), but there’s virtually nothing out there for less, that allows pets – except total crap shacks.
Norm,
Can we expect inventory to climb again once Jan. 1 rolls by? Historically speaking, I mean…. does inventory quit shrinking and start growing at this point? Thanks.
Hee hee
I suspect the only “fevered pitch” will be coming from certain sellers, and, probably, local media.
AnotherTourist,
Sorry, can’t comment on the cost of utilities as my new apartment has all the utilities rolled into the monthly rent. That said, rent still works out to be about $300 a month less for a bigger apartment than I had in Saskatoon.
Guy_In_Regina,
Think thats bad? My 1 bedroom place was just shy of $1200 before I bolted from Saskatoon. I experienced about a $500 in increase in just over two years. The continual rent hikes really got a guy down. As you would just accomplish paying one student loan and think you are one step closer to coming out ahead, WHAM, you are hit with yet another rent increase. The rental managers knew it wasn’t justified, but they knew they had us house poor over the barrel and that should we choose to move, we would have very few options. The whole situation was very revealing of the true greedy nature of Saskatoon. But according to the spin doctors at the Star Phoneix and the Gormely’s of the world, apparently a good chunk of the city population falling further and further behind in debt is the sign of strong, booming economy. I’m just glad I chose to get out before the economy got any more “booming” as I would probably be freezing my ass off with the likes of Jake Jackson out in a trailer park outside of town.
Norm,
I think time is running out for new home investors to turn a profit. Some will sell, but most will become “unwanted landlords” because of their unwillingness to lower their price enough to justify a sale. I know there are people who saw dollar signs in 2007 and bought a new home ready to flip a year later in 2008. But delays pushed them into late spring and they were unreasonable with their price and did not sell. Now they are lucky if they can get someone to cover the mortgage payment nevermind taxes or making the property cash flow positive. And I am sure that they are being told prices will increase in the spring.
There is a part of me that thinks that maybe in 5 or so years the average house price will be over 350k in Saskatoon. It is along the same reasoning with a gallon of milk being $15, though.
“Take for example a 1780sqft brand new 2 story home with double attached garage with standard features. In Calgary it sells for 398k tax included, this same house would sell for low 500’s in Saskatoon.”
Not sure if this response by Norm was addressing this “I’m looking at something similar right now. Sold in March. 1792 square feet, double detached garage. $448,750.”
Just keep in mind this depends on the area. The only areas you can find this is about 20-30km away from downtown. Actually you can’t even find areas to build new houses unless you are at least 15km away from downtown. Depending on the area in Calgary a place this size is asking 399-450 “Asking” which means it will sell for 20k less if anyone feels like gives them an offer.
another thing to consider that’s cheaper here (at least compared to Regina) is property tax. Our last hosue was 1550 2 storey detached garage and our annual tax was 1800. Our current house is a 1700ft 2 storey attached and taxes are $2100. My vehicle insurance is $800/year and do not pay extra to finance monthly. Japanese resturants are pricy here but half the price of what they are in Regina. Same with Korean resturants. The Major Chinese grocer franchses(T&T) is about 2 – 3 times cheaper than the 1 single grocer in Regina (not sure about Saskatoon).
Oh, i found out something interesting here. Your postal code can influence the cost of your vehicle insurance here as certain areas are higher accident risk. I wonder if this applies to home insurance as % shootings are much higher in certain areas. As well you have a good chance of dying while driving on deerfoot.
Here’s a table of the most recent US Case-Shiller data:
http://tinyurl.com/6wwrn8
Phoenix and Vegas still lead the pack in terms of declines, and it looks like Dallas and Charlotte are starting to get their lumps too. The speed of the decline in some areas has been astounding. Like George, I think this thing in the US is not close to bottom- too many horrid economic/unemployment numbers coming.
In terms of sellers “waiting for Spring” in order to relist the properties they pulled in the fall- I have a relative in BC (Campbell River)who purchased a 1400 sf home near the peak. He is now living and working in another city and renting his home out because there were no serious buyers and he didn’t want to sell it at a loss. The renter isn’t coming close to covering the mortgage payment, btw. Prices are still dropping, and now I think his loss will be at least $70-80K (if he could sell it now, which I doubt- there have been a massive amount of forestry sector layoffs) instead of $20-30K if he had bit the bullet, lowered the asking price and sold it 6 months ago. Unfortunately, he’s not in a postion to hold on to the property for long at a net monthly loss.
guy_in_regina,
The market has been anything but “normal” for the past two years, but here’s what I would expect. Next year will look an awful lot like this year except that demand will be weaker from the outset Active listings will likely decline again at the end of December, perhaps below 1,200. They’ll remain fairly flat through January, possibly even through a good part of February and then they’ll start to increase. If they actually increase through Jan-Feb, we can take that as a sign that some sellers are giving up on the “spring will be better theory” but I doubt it.
George,
“I think time is running out for new home investors to turn a profit.”
I agree completely, but most of these people paid a price that is at least a year old. The price of a single-family home is still up over last year, but ever so slightly. On average, they’ll fetch 10K more in December 08 than they did in December 07. The average selling price for December at this point is below $270K (if a couple of high end sales are reported today that could change). We peaked at $310 in June. It seems completely inconceivable to me that we would slide 13% over six months, stop on a dime, and begin to climb in time that prices would be up in spring. I suppose anything is possible but it doesn’t seem very probable to me.
My advice for any investor who cares to hear it. Thicken up. Cut your losses. Be prepared to take it on the chin. Your real estate investment portfolio could look a helluva a lot worse. Look just about anywhere to the east, west, north or south for evidence of that.
I’m not saying that prices are going to fall through the floor. I am saying that I believe this correction isn’t over yet and I think that right now, prices are likely at their highest point for the next year, at least.
Hi Vinny,
“Not sure if this response by Norm was addressing this”
No. My response to Jeff was further up the thread where I posted a link to a handful of new two-storeys priced under $400K including one at nearly 1800 square feet in Willowgrove for $358,000.
“The only areas you can find this is about 20-30km away from downtown.”
You must be talking about Calgary here? In this area, if you drive 20-30 km from downtown you are well out of town before you hit the 20 km mark. The house I pointed to in Willowgrove is an easy 10 minute drive to the downtown core. I think you’d get there in half that time from Stonebridge
While we’re pointing out how great Alberta is, how about Winnipeg? Housing is much cheaper in Winnipeg than Saskatoon and jobs are plentiful and pay a comparable rate. Not a bad city. Really just a bigger version of Saskatoon. Crime is a bit lower, university a bit bigger and cheaper tuition.
“Funny thing is, most of them could probably still get out with a profit, or at least a break even.”
Hey Norm, do you have any idea on the number of homes that are for sale that were purchased before 2007? I am guessing that there isn’t a huge number of people out there that will motivated to default on their mortgages if the average price manages to stay above $175K.
I made a rough estimate that 13% (11000 sales/85000 homes) of Saskatoon homes were sold in 2007 and 2008, but I don’t know how many of these sales were lateral moves for buyers.
Looking at some other stats, there is a large segment of 20-24 year olds in Saskatoon. If we continue to buck the trend of the past and retain our youth, we should have a good size segment of first time home buyers in the near future.
http://www.saskatoon.ca/org/city_planning/resources/neighbourhood_demographics/2007/saskatoon_profile.pdf
I heard around 28% of Saskatchewan’s workforce is in the public sector. I think this will also help to soften the blow on any economic downturn.
Hey Charles,
“do you have any idea on the number of homes that are for sale that were purchased before 2007?”
Sorry, there is no way to actually determine that except to run a separate listing history search on each property that is for sale. I can tell you that approximately 25% of the properties which are currently for sale on our MLS did not exist prior to 2007 (built in 2007 or 2008). Further, only 522 (42%) of the 1,233 active listings appearing today are owner occupied. Balance are tenant occupied or vacant. I recall discussing these numbers a few months ago and I believe it was about 50/50 at that time.
Balgonie,
Economical-wise Winnipeg is a good choice, housing is much cheaper compared to Saskatoon. But I’ll have to disagree, Winnipeg is nothing like Saskatoon. I lived there for a year after I graduated from college. It’s grid, I don’t find it as green… I’d say it feels more like Regina or Edmonton. Also, the winters are more harsh than in Saskatoon, thus the nickname “Winterpeg”.
Heather, Winterpeg is because of the similar sounding names, Saskatoon, Regina and a bit less Edmonton all have brutal winters. Calgary averages a bit warmer, much warmer with a chinook.
Personally, I like Winnipeg the times I’ve visited. “grid”? Winnipeg has nice big parks – not only on the river like Saskatoon. Downtown Winnipeg is grungy, but have you ever been near Saskatoon’s down town bus mall, or bus depot, or toward Jax/Ivy after 4 pm?
I think Regina is a lot like Saskatoon. Just go to the south end, or along Wascana Park in the Crescents. U of R campus is smaller, but beautiful park behind. Wascana near the ledge or opposite has more than the river, with Science Center and Imax, better art gallery, provincial museum, Center of the Arts (TCU place clone), outdoor pool, fountains that actually work and a few islands. To me, Regina is the better Saskatoon alternative than Winnipeg, but all are similar.
Edmonton is a step up to me. Whyte is a cultural district, and party strip, you just can’t match between Vancouver and Toronto. And Edmonton’s river/park/university are just beautiful.
And Happy New Year!
Off to celebrate, would be depressing to spend it on here – sorry Norm!
(Regina also has better bar/restaurant scene than Saskatoon)
Nick said…
(Regina also has better bar/restaurant scene than Saskatoon)
I’ve lived in Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Calgary and now Edmonton. Trust me, Regina doesn’t have a better Bar/Restaurant scene than Saskatoon. Actually both are pretty tame and somewhat weak but it does work for the people in each of those cities.
I know many business people in Alberta who had been scoping both cities for commercial property for various business opportunities. Had it not been for the credit crisis, there would have been more than a few restaurants, Bars and other long time retail business owners wondering where the clientele has gone. Alberta business is extremely aggressive compared to my home province. The province was ripe for the picking in certain areas of business.
As for affordability in Winnipeg, its for a reason. That province is dead and has been for years. With my work, I am now involved with business in both Sask. and Manitoba and nothing….I repeat nothing has changed in Winnipeg in the last 20 years. Business owners dont go after business there, they wait for people to walk in. It’s like walking into a time warp every time I visit that city. Manitoba has no highs and no lows. Its always steady eddy. Thats why housing is cheap. Saskatchewan used to be like that. Now, in my 47 years of living, Sask. has its first real high. With that eventually, comes the low. We’ll see how the province and its people deal with it.
Saskatoon rent may be more expensive, but rental vacancy reached a low **last** October 2007 and is now 3 times higher so the rental market is starting to loosen up with more vacancies and will get better when some of these sellers that can’t sell decide to cut their losses and rent instead and a drop in rental rates will make buying an entry level property less appealing
Average monthly rent for two-bedroom apartment from CMHC statistics:
$843 (October 2008)
$759 (April 2008)
$694 (October 2007)
$626 (April 2007)
$608 (October 2006)
Vacancy rate:
1.8% (October 2008)
0.9% (April 2008)
0.6% (October 2007)
3.0% (April 2007)
3.2% (October 2006)
still low vacany, but much higher than a year ago
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2008/11/14/f-realestatemap.html?ref=rss&loomia_si=t0:a16:g2:r5:c0.114358:b20171985
westcan, agree to disagree Regina great restaurants
Zest, Crave, La Bodega, Bitten all better than anything in Saskatoon and more hip too
Skara, Diplomat, Golf’s, Lakeshore, the original Free House, Casa Latina, Roof Top Grill, Mediteranean Bistro all on par with Saskatoon’s Best
Bailey’s is Saskatoon’s only lame attempt at a grown up club, the Pat has shootings, the Scuzz name says it all, get jacked at Jax
Nick,
“Off to celebrate, would be depressing to spend it on here – sorry Norm!”
Lol. No offense taken. Hanging out here would not have been my idea of an outstanding New Years Eve.
I have to disagree with the Regina resturant/bar scene too. We used to always think Saskatoon’s was much better. Not sure if that’s because when you live somewhere it’s always more fun to party somewhere else or not. No offense to current Regina folk.
Do grown ups go to clubs?
I’d add Grekos and The Cottage to Regina’s list of good restaurants, which far out number Saskatoon’s.
Regina also has Chili’s and Applebee’s for the American chain lovers. I’ve also heard the Crushed Grape is good. Teppanyaki is cheaper/better than Samurai, and Selam is lot’s of fun. I think Creekside Bistro was ranked one of the best places to eat in Canada, Willows on Wascana lake.
I find the people who say Saskatoon is better food wise haven’t been to all (any) of the good Regina restaurants! I find Saskatoon is horribly lacking food wise, supported by some friends who moved to Saskatoon from Regina, and some new friends here who moved to Regina from Saskatoon after graduation.
Bar wise? To me it’s more of a “who care” but Saskatoon? Not sure if anywhere is really to be proud of, Scuzz or Pat? Baley’s? What else? And the Pat had a shooting, the scuzz had some guy beat in the alley with a bat. Not sure if normal people go anywhere else. Maybe Amigos, Hose?
Regina has Soho (former New York’s), Gabbo’s, The Drink, The Pump, The Owl (decent campus bar v. Louis), Habano’s (like Bayley’s crowd, but cooler and doesn’t look like a neighbourhood restaurant inside)
Then again, not sure if having a better bar scence is really a point of pride.
And for lounge wise? Regina’s Brewsters, Bonzinis and Bushwackers are ALL better than anything in Saskatoon, Winstons expensive imports and sleezy crowd noted.
-
Vacany rates in Saskatoon are up a lot. Granted still low.
I’ve been saying for a while with all the condos that can’t sell in Saskatoon, a lot need to go on the rental market so they’re not just sitting there depreciating, losing taxes and condo fees, so I think the vacancy rate will continue go up, and a few hundred condo conversions re-entering the market and competing to get renters will change the rental market a lot in renters’ favour.
RBC affordability index
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdf
Historically, Saskatoon’s affordability is between 20 and 30 percent for a bungalow and a two storey. Now they are both over 40 percent taking into account 25% down over 25 years. Affordability is higher for borrowers if there is a smaller down payment.
Typically, no more than 32% of a borrowers gross annual income should go towards mortgage expenses.
Ahh, the ol’ Regina vs. Saskatoon debate.
Not to prolong it, but: I lived in S’toon for 6 years, and have been in Regina for 3.5. I find the two cities to be highly comprable. Very similar quality of life and amenities. I find that I, personally, prefer Regina ever so slightly; but that’s probably because I’m in a better place life-wise here. The Broadway district does beat Cathedral. But each city has its own pros and cons. I was a bit suprised when Heather D implied Regina was less ‘green’ – Wascana Park is 2,300 acres. In comparison, Vancouver’s Stanley Park is 1,000. I don’t see Saskatoon on this list:
http://www.ourthoughts.ca/2003/10/03/stanley-park-is-not-largest-urban-park-in-north-america/
Gotta say though, I don’t at all mind people expressing negative views about old Pile O’ Bones – let’s keep house prices lower here!
Oh, and Nick, you didn’t mention Lydia’s and the Yard and Flagon – they’re good pubs.
Wow, Saskatoon now considered to be a “buyers” market? (RBC report) Not yet at “buyers” prices, still in the “sellers” category for pricing. The graphs in that report are pretty informative for both buyers and sellers.
Poor suckers.
George, I think 32% is supposed to be the home cost portion of your budget -including taxes, condo fees, heating, mortgage to balance ones budget properly.
Those graphs show Saskatoon higher than many!
Cindy,
I could be wrong with my numbers, 5% down over 25 years at 6% and with a household income of 75,000, allows a household to buy a house for 225,000 with a 32% housing expense. This would also include heat, utilities, taxes and insurance. And no other debt.
6250 montly income = 2000 a month for housing
Principal & Interest: $1,367.59
Homeowners Insurance: $80.62
Property Taxes: $250.00
Heat $100.00
Utilities $150.00 = 1948 a month.
3x income for a house with no other debt?
Regina has a better more extensive park system than Saskatoon with way more ammenities in the much bigger Wascana Park
Saskatoon is the river or bust
Regina has way more good restaraunts than Saskatoon
Including several good sushi places
Like Alberta and British Columbia before it, Saskatchewan is about to feel the
downside of frenzied markets
from George’s Royal Bank Link, sounds like we’re still in denial and the worst is yet to come, just a bit behind Alberta, like we are in everything
As is often the case, a wild party ends with a
hangover and Saskatchewan’s fête last year will be no different. Housing resales
and prices are already showing clear signs of weakening. More is likely to occur
more from RBC
Regina,
Your city is also the king of trash (dirt city) with the only upside being you have the science center which I want to bring my kids too. About the food in saskatoon your forgetting about 2nd ave grill , chiantis, the keg, the stationhouse, and the one and only quiznos! Quiznos alone boosts our property values by 10% and we have 3 of them. The only fun thing to do in Regina is watch some of the government officials and employees waste our hard earned tax dollars on gold plated toilet seats and limos from one restaurant to the next! K done my rant
p.s.
The politician comment does not apply to Brad Wall im sure he has a normal toilet seat bought from Rona and does not take limos.
p.s.s.
Dont take the whole thing literally i actually dont think ur city is a mound of dirt it is decent as is Saskatoon just some prefer one or the other =o)
All who replied,
Grid pertains to the roadways – whilst more practical I don’t like the feel of it at all. This is part of what makes Saskatoon seem more lush to me. “The river or bust” I’ll take over absence of river. I quite like biking/walking along the Meewasin.
Winters in Winnipeg are colder, just as summers tend to be hotter – this is due to the humidity – it makes everything worse. I had my car snowed in a couple times, never once have I in Saskatoon. The summer I left Winnipeg it was so terribly hot the humidex brought the temperature above 50C. Never have I seen a humidex used for Saskatoon. Dry heat/cold are more bearable.
I don’t need “grown-up” clubs to find stuff to do with my spare time. I do however enjoy Lydia’s, Vangeli’s Tavern, and Bud’s in the Broadway district. I can see where a person who eats at restaraunts and goes drinking at clubs frequently might prefer a larger city to Saskatoon. I only dine out on special occassions and don’t drink because I like spending my money on other things.
I don’t think it’s fair to claim that Saskatoon residents are somehow responsible for “doing a number” on the poor. Many (if not most) of the condos were bought up by out of province speculators. I remember wondering where all these Albertan investors thought they were going to find enough people to actually live in all the properties once they stopped selling them to each other in a feeding frenzy.
Does anyone really base their choice of where to live on the restaurant selection? I find that Saskatoon has plenty of great restaurants, and many I haven’t even tried. Then again I only eat out a few times a week.
I have no idea about the “bar scene” in Saskatoon, but if lack of “good” clubs is keeping the drunken, rowdy people from moving here, I say it’s a good thing. Once again, who bases their choice of where to live on the selection of lounges or bars?
My advice to those who aren’t living in Saskatoon and just come here to throw mud at the city… don’t you have something better to do? You don’t see me going to a random city’s blog and claiming that city sucks. Try to find a more positive outlet for your energy, you’ll live a happier and longer life.
Happy New Year everyone!
Possible tax cuts coming in the budget. GST might be scrapped. If a person buys a new home for 500k, a savings of 25k?
When, not if, prices drop by another 5-10% (spring time) I think people could easily get a home priced at 500k now for about 420k- 440k in a few months. How?
Builders will have to cut prices and/or offer bigger incentives to move product and with a possible gst cut for new homes adding in wheeling and dealing by the buyer, I think buyers affordability will improve drastically.
The only problem is that with tax cuts, Canada goes into a bigger deficit and then we mortgage more of our children’s future with more taxes. Not my fault when they were are born, or is it?
Calgary
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/December+real+estate+slump+worsens/1135819/story.html
Preliminary, unofficial MLS data shows single-family home sales plunged by 46.9 per cent compared with December 2007 while condo sales fell by 47.8 per cent
Toronto
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/index.htm
TORONTO, December 17, 2008 — Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 1,487 resale transactions during the first half of December, from 2,868 sales recorded in the same period a year ago
Vancouver is actually doing quite well according to this graph
http://vancouvercondo.info/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/reverse-sfh-2008.gif
George,
Thank you for comment #10,000 (and all of the others).
Saskatoon posted 162 residential sales for December, down nearly 23% from 210 last year, but remarkably, exceeding all previous December sales numbers.
Here’s what prices looked like.
December ‘08 – Median of $249,500 and average of $266,411
November ‘08 – Median of $265,000 and average of $278,495
December ‘07 – Median of $244,250 and average of $255,452
Regina posted 160 residential sales for December, down just 11% from last year when 181 sales were recorded, and actually up from November of this year when 152 sales hit the board.
Here’s what prices there looked like.
December ‘08 – Median of $230,000 & average of $234,000
November ‘08 – Median of $222,500 & average of $230,000
December ‘07 – Median of $210,000 & average of $208,000
Pungo said:
“I don’t think it’s fair to claim that Saskatoon residents are somehow responsible for “doing a number” on the poor.”
I disagree. It was the people of Saskatoon who stayed silent while our newspapers posted articles of families driven out into trailer parks because of the high prices. It was the people of Saskatoon that did nothing when the elderly were driven from their homes to make room for more condos. It was the people of Saskatoon that refused to give their workers a sufficient pay boost to help soften some of the cost of living increases. It was the people of Saskatoon who in the past hypocricaly critized Alberta’s for their apparent self interest and looking after number 1 attitude, only to abandon their own principles as soon as they were tempted with easy money generated by the housing boom. It was the people of Saskatoon who sat around, patting each on the back, smugly comparing equity appreciation in their homes while this whole housing scmozzle unfolded and many people got hurt. And I hope its the people of Saskatoon and their respective greed who get hurt the most when the dust settles.
Norm,
just waiting for my prize.
any thought to putting out a poll for predictions for 09?
George,
“just waiting for my prize.
”
Good news! It’s a free market evaluation. Congratulations!
“any thought to putting out a poll for predictions for 09?”
Yes. Here’s what I’m thinking. One point for each of the following.
Total residential unit sales for 2009.
Total listings for 2009.
Average sale price for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009.
Median sale price for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009.
Average sale price for 2009.
Median sale price for 2009.
Possible 12 points.
Separate post. Record your predictions as a comment. I’d wait until SRAR reports for December and then put a time limit on submitting.
I’m considering a prize of some sort for the winner. Perhaps a nice dinner for two at one of our sub-par restaurants. I would probably have to get people to register by email so I actually have some record of registrants but could still protect their anonymity.
Any thoughts?
Mmmm. Sub-par restaurant… who could refuse?
I like the point system, but I think too much weight is given to the quarterly data (eight out of 12 possible points). You could be mostly right on the 2009 year-end data and still be off on the quarterly predictions. This might add to the drama, though…
FrustratedRenter, I think you missed my point about investors from out of province being the cause for the boom in Saskatchewan. I doubt that a rash of letters to the editor would have made an Albertan investor suddenly take pity on the seniors he was booting into the streets.
The situation does suck right now for renters in Saskatoon, but I think it will get a lot better by next fall, when the owners of all those high priced condos and houses realize they’ll have to take a big loss or else rent out their properties.
I’m sorry that you feel that way about Saskatoon, but I just don’t think it’s fair to demonize a whole city. Unless it’s Regina. Just kidding!
Norm … that seems awfully complicated to declare winnner, BUT if you’re willing to do computations, the by quarter updates would keep it interesting.
Maybe a summary of the values from last year in the post for us to use as a baseline?
Memories in Regina is great, once rated one of the best places in Canada to eat, no where in Saskatoon compares as a high end French restaurant, complete with ocassional snooty waiter and all! (just a cheezy name)
I used to really like Simon’s in Saskatoon, was trendy and unique (reminded me a bit of the Willow in Regina, though less unique) BUT alas, a classy, unique restaurant in Saskatoon couldn’t make it. Instead, Lakewood is getting yet another Boston Pizza!
Norm, one final prediction, I bet by the final February numbers, average residential prices will finally be down Year over Year! (Median might be down year over year by January!)
Funny, the main stream media completely ignored when Saskatoon condos dropped 5% year over year by the end of November?(or was it October?) Thanks Norm for bucking trend and providing these milestone stories.
Will be interesting to see how much condos are down year over year for Dec. Already, being down year over year at all shows Condos are in very weak, as prices peaked AFTER January 08, so we’re now comparing even lower condo average prices to higher prices from last year. Down 10%? Saying our market is “booming” when condos lose 10% of their value, and we have a lot of sellers in denial, and more condo conversions to come seems just plain wrong now!
Crikey,
“Mmmm. Sub-par restaurant… who could refuse?”
Of course I was being sarcastic. Some people seem to think that there isn’t a decent place to eat in Saskatoon. I was thinking along the fine dining line, maybe $50-75.00. Lol. In all seriousness, something nice.
I think you need to have more than the one guess to make it interesting. It’s a long time until January 2010. I thought that having these small opportunities to make points could keep it interesting. Perhaps it would even be fair to allow new people to jump on board mid-stream?
Nick,
“Funny, the main stream media completely ignored when Saskatoon condos dropped 5% year over year by the end of November?”
In fairness to the main stream media, they don’t get a detailed breakdown of activity on a month to month basis. Unless you’re reading our monthly “Closer Look” or tracking asking prices very closely you probably wouldn’t know it. Of course, the other thing to consider is that the monthly stats can even be a bit misleading. For instance, the average residential selling price went from $279,366 in August to $297,836 in September, yet real property values were actually declining during that time. You’ll see something similar in December’s condo numbers. The truth is all in the trends and I do think that the media is talking about declines.
BUT alas, a classy, unique restaurant in Saskatoon couldn’t make it. Instead, Lakewood is getting yet another Boston Pizza!
TOUCHE even red neck alberta has more unique stuff than saskatoon did thats when you realize saskatoon was pretty redneck compared to any major canadian city
norm isn’t it the media’s job to look for stories?
after announcing ad nauseum 2 years of unprecedented real estate growth a drop in condo prices year over year is a big story
to prove that, i bet if you asked some one on the street if a: they knew condos were down year over year for the first time this october or whatever and b: if they thought it was news worthy you’d get overwhelming no i didn’t know and yes why wasn’t that on the news
maybe would have cut into the radio ads on news talk for new condos
SASKATOON CONDO PRICES DOWN YEAR OVER YEAR
now we all know that is an attention grabbing headline worthy of front page
and it is the media’s job to be on that stuff
they often have a housing article
even if monthly averages don’t mean too much, being down year over year is still a big story, they could even let their usual booster try to explain away why falling prices really means we need to BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT BEFORE THE NEXT IMMINENT BOOM as per that news talk story completely devoid of any actual facts from thebench
Dan,
Your points are all good but let me ask you this. Given what I’ve said in my comment to Nick about average condo prices for December, how would you feel about seeing this headline in next week’s paper?
Saskatoon condo prices back on the rise.
Relax my friend, there are plenty of bad real estate news stories in the cards for 2009, including year over year downs. It’s quite possible that January’s numbers may be down. I’d say February is an almost for sure. March without a doubt.
Norm,
Of *course* you were being sarcastic. So was I.
When does the December SRAR data come out?
Crikey,
I just wasn’t sure if you were tuned in to the entire discussion.
I expect that SRAR will likely produce a release on Monday once they’re all back to work. I will post it as soon as it’s out.
George,
You are correct.
Anyone catch W5 last night? Very sad story.
BTW, I by no means “want” anyone to suffer through this recession. I remember a year ago encouraging people to think for themselves and their own budget.
IMO the media, including commercials, newspapers, television, is very good at promoting the idea that we can all afford everything we want right now mentality among consumers. Scotiabanks “your richer than you think commercials” are really hilarious. I think Rick Mercer should do a spoof on “You are poorer than you think” – which is the reality of the Canadian consumers debt levels. That mentality is at the base of the real estate bubble, and now many people are caught up in the smoke and mirrors of it all.
When I say it is not yet buyers prices, most sellers are at a disbelief at the loss of equity they had counted on. Reality is that a widget (house) is only worth what someone else thinks that widget is worth. To me, a house is worth more in an environment where the GDP and house prices arent really out of whack.
Pungo – it never hurts to look with objective reality, leave aside emotion and sentimentality. I liked Saskatoon as a city, and had considered moving there, and would again if the right situation presented itself. I did see that a lot of people in Saskatoon got badly hurt – and I would say more got hurt than further ahead with the boom. But, the voice of the wealthier, as usual was louder and better greased than the underdog. As the founding province of healthcare, I feel it was and is a real hipocracy.
Here is my guesstimate:
Total residential unit sales for 2009.
-4100
Total listings for 2009.
-10000
Average sale price for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009.
-265K, 275K, 265k, 260K
Median sale price for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009.
-260K, 265K, 255k, 255K
Average sale price for 2009.
-265K
Median sale price for 2009.
-255K